What to expect from Dillon Gee

Earlier today, I saw a tweet from AmazinAvenue's Eric Simon, in response to the question "What's wrong with Dillon Gee?"

"Notwithstanding his two starts this year, he walks too many and strikes out too few"

Certainly, Gee's numbers won't blow anyone away. Last season, along with his 4.43 ERA he registered 4.0 BB/9, 6.2K/9, and 8.4 H/9 in 160 2/3 innings. As a career pitcher, the numbers are 3.8, 6.2, and 8.2, respectively. He won't be an Opening Day starter with those numbers, but how do they measure as a fifth starter, where he currently sits in the Mets rotation?

The National League averages last year were 3.12 BB/9, 7.27 K/9, and 8.63 H/9. So he walks a few more, and gives up a few less hits. He strikes out one fewer batter per 9 innings than the mean though, so that counts against him.

Let's compare him to some other pitchers in the division, and see how he compares. I'll start by using the 2011 statistics for the #5 pitcher in each NL East rotation (Randall Delgado in Atlanta, Anibal Sanchez in Miami, Gee, Joe Blanton in Philadelphia, and Ross Detwiler in Washington)

Delgado: 3.6 BB/9, 4.6 K/9, 7.5 H/9 in 35 innings (2.83 ERA)
Sanchez: 2.9 BB/9, 9.3 K/9, 8.6 H/9 in 196 1/3 innings (3.67 ERA)
Blanton: 2.0 BB/9, 7.6 K/9, 11.3 H/9 in 41 innings (5.01 ERA)
Detwiler: 2.7 BB/9, 5.6 K/9, 8.6 H/9 in 66 innings (3.00 ERA)

So, while Gee walks more batters than his counterparts, he is second in hits and third in strikeouts. In terms of baserunners, Gee's 12.4 /9 ranks fourth of five, better only than Blanton's 13.3. Similarly, his ERA also ranks fourth, again better only than Blanton. The veteran Blanton likely won't improve much on those numbers. Delgado and Detwiler are both relatively inexperienced in the majors, so they don't really represent a large-enough sample size for comparison. At the very least, Gee is a serviceable #5 pitcher. However, he has shown the potential to be much more.

Gee is still only 26 years old. Also, if you look at his minor league numbers, they suggest much better peripherals - 2.0 BB/9, 7.9 K/9, 8.6 H/9 across four and change minor league seasons. As has been often suggested, Gee's success depends on his ability to use all his pitches often and well. Without a blow-you-away fastball or a bona-fide strikeout pitch, Gee's advantage is the element of surprise. When he is on, he can throw any of his pitches for strikes. When he isn't, he'll walk batters, and be hit around.

The important thing for Gee this year is to build confidence in his off-speed pitches. His best weapon on the mound is his confidence. In a small sample this year, he is walking 1.5 batters per 9, and striking out 8.0. Those numbers will likely regress closer to the mean, but he has shown the ability to pound the strike zone and mix up his pitches. How well he does those long-term will determine his success this season and beyond.