Scott Hairston had a career year in 2012, hitting 20 home runs and posting a career-high .803 OPS+. Conservatively speaking, he outplayed his $1.1 Million salary. Hairston's play will certainly earn him a notable raise this offseason, with many saying he's priced himself out of the Mets' wallet. For that reason, this post may be a bit naive/unnecessary. However, let's consider for a bit that Hairston were willing to sign a team-friendly contract.
Hairston hit .263/.299/.504 this year, which is an improvement to his career marks (.247/.302/.449), but not so much so as to suggest anomaly. He hit .286/.317/.550 against left-handed pitching, again not far from his .276/.325/.500 career marks. His .229/.288/.416 line against right-handed pitching suggests that he would be an ideal fit in a platoon, which could be a deterrent. The Mets, however, have a plethora of Lefty-batting outfielders with large platoon splits, all of whom are under team control and making Major-League minimum salaries. 2013 will likely feature an outfield starting Lucas Duda, Kirk Nieuwenhuis, and Mike Baxter against right-handed pitching. Jason Bay will likely patrol Left Field against lefty-pitching. Having a veteran like Hairston to platoon with Kirk and/or Baxter would significantly improve the outfield offense, which has been targeted as a significant need this offseason.
For simplicity's sake, let's consider a strict platoon of Mike Baxter and Scott Hairston in right field next year. In 2012, Mikescott Baxston hit .287/.335/.504 in 388 plate appearances. Compare that to:
Nick Swisher - .272/.364/.473, 624 PA ($10,250,000)
Carlos Beltran - .269/.346/.495, 619 PA ($13,000,000)
Jayson Werth - .300/.387/.440, 344 PA ($13,000,000)
Josh Hamilton - .285/.354/.577, 636 PA ($13,750,000)
Baxston likely won't turn any heads, nor would he be lauded as a major victory for Sandy Alderson. However, it's a quiet move that could shore up a position of need, and do so relatively inexpensively. Compared to the short list above, would offering Hairston a 2-year, $9M contract not be unreasonable?
Tuesday, October 9, 2012
Tuesday, July 31, 2012
The Quest For .500!
As of me writing this, the Mets are 50-53 on the curtails of a miserable 3-13 performance since the All-Star Break. They've scored 467 runs (putting them on pace for 734, or 16 runs more than in 2011) and have allowed 476 runs (putting them on pace for 748, or 6 more than in 2011). They were 52-51 at this point last year, in the midst of a 5-game winning streak that started in game 102 (This year's Mets are in the midst of a current 2-game win streak that started in game 102).
Enough comparisons to last year. What I'm looking to do right now, is try and project where the Amazin's end up. Using Math!
The Mets have 59 games left. The winning percentage of their opponents in those remaining games is .491, which is slightly above the Mets' current percentage of .485. This is a little misleading, however. 28 of their remaining games come against teams over .500, who share a winning percentage of .568. The other 31 come against teams below .500, who share a winning percentage of .414.
Those are magic numbers: 31 and 28. A 31-28 record down the stretch yields an 81-81 record, which the Mets haven't achieved since 2008, when they went 89-73.
It can't be that simple though. Certainly, the Mets aren't going to win every game against the inferior competition, and lose every game against a winning team. So how likely *is* 31-28 from here?
Thanks to Baseball-Reference, I was able to get a breakdown of not only the Mets remaining schedule, but the number of remaining games against each, and how they've fared so far against each team. I broke all this down into this table:
Looking at this, we see that this (simple) model projects the Mets to go .... 30.638-28.362 from here! In a sense, it's fair and reasonable to say the Mets will finish very close to .500 this year. But that's also a rather simple way to look at it.
In my opinion, 31-28 represents neither the best nor worst case scenario, but a fair middle ground. Arguments can be made in either direction.
THREE REASONS WHY THE METS WILL FINISH ABOVE .500
(1)
The Phillies have traded away Shane Victorino and Hunter Pence.
The Marlins have traded away Gaby Sanchez, Omar Infante, Hanley Ramirez, and Anibal Sanchez (among others).
These two teams have arguably gotten worse since they've last played the Mets, and they represent 18 of the Mets remaining games. Based solely on their current head-to-head records, they project to go 12-6 in those games. Given the above changes, outpacing that projection isn't unreasonable.
(2)
The model above suggests that, because the Mets were swept in Houston, they won't win another game. I'm not a betting man, but if I were I would think it fair to say the Mets will take at least one of three.
Of the sub-.500 teams the Mets play going forward, only one (Miami) is within eight games of .500. After that, it's Milwaukee (-10), Philadelphia (-12), San Diego (-16), Colorado (-26), and Houston (-34). All of these teams have significant issues, and represent a prime opportunity for the Mets to fatten their record.
They also have left room for improvement against some opponents. The Mets have gone 4-17 against Cincinnati and Washington this year, and with 9 games remaining can look to improve upon that. If they even go a paltry 3-6 in those games, it represents a net gain against the projection.
(3)
The opportunity for internal improvement. It's no secret that the bullpen has been, well, terrible. But there are some bright spots - Josh Edgin has pitched great, giving up only a single earned run since his ML debut, and sporting a gaudy 16.2 K/9. Jon Rauch has quietly been solid, with a 1.32 ERA in his last 18 appearances (2ER/13.2IP). He struggled between mid-May and early June, but he has a 2.17 ERA otherwise to go along with his career best 1.062 WHIP.
On offense, Ike Davis' consistent resurgence has turned first base into a position of strength. His 20 home runs lead all players from the position, and his ability to hit somewhat competently against lefties has allowed additional flexibility for Terry Collins. Similarly, the improvement of players like Andres Torres and the out-of-nowhere-mashing of Scott Hairston both bode well for this team.
THREE REASONS WHY THE METS WON'T FINISH ABOVE .500
(1)
Their pitching. The bullpen has struggled. And struggled. And struggled. They could improve as the season wears on, but it's unlikely that they will make significant strides. The starting pitching has also been shaky lately, and plenty of uncertainty surrounds the vacancies left by Dillon Gee and Johan Santana. Can the Mets win with Hefner filling in? Is Matt Harvey as good as he looked? The jury is out right now, but these are questions that need answers soon, before it's too late.
(2)
The rest of the offense. The Mets are getting almost nothing from their outfield, outside Scott Hairston. Jason Bay is still lost, Andres Torres' OBP is high, but his .320 SLG undoes the bulk of that. Mike Baxter's return offers a glimmer of hope and solidifies a potential platoon in left field, but that leaves the Mets with, at most, 1.5 effective outfielders at any moment. The infield (Davis/Murphy/Wright/Tejada) has been collectively solid of late, but it's going to continue to hurt the Mets when 5-9 in the batting order are dragging.
(3)
Emotions. The Mets' last homestand saw the wheels fall off the wagon, and then the wagon combusted, and then the ashes threw a hanging curveball to Matt Kemp. The Mets have been, by most admissions, playing better than their talent would suggest. When their long-touted locker room chemistry began to lull, things just got worse. Pedro Beato's demotion is a step in the right direction, but after three terrible weeks it leaves one to wonder if they can regain the feel-good vibe from the spring.
The Mets had a .544 winning percentage in April, May, and June. They're .292 going into their last game in July. The level of competition going forward suggests that they could go either way. If they play the way they have so far this season, .500 is attainable. If they catch a few breaks, they could end up better than that.
Enough comparisons to last year. What I'm looking to do right now, is try and project where the Amazin's end up. Using Math!
The Mets have 59 games left. The winning percentage of their opponents in those remaining games is .491, which is slightly above the Mets' current percentage of .485. This is a little misleading, however. 28 of their remaining games come against teams over .500, who share a winning percentage of .568. The other 31 come against teams below .500, who share a winning percentage of .414.
Those are magic numbers: 31 and 28. A 31-28 record down the stretch yields an 81-81 record, which the Mets haven't achieved since 2008, when they went 89-73.
It can't be that simple though. Certainly, the Mets aren't going to win every game against the inferior competition, and lose every game against a winning team. So how likely *is* 31-28 from here?
Thanks to Baseball-Reference, I was able to get a breakdown of not only the Mets remaining schedule, but the number of remaining games against each, and how they've fared so far against each team. I broke all this down into this table:
Looking at this, we see that this (simple) model projects the Mets to go .... 30.638-28.362 from here! In a sense, it's fair and reasonable to say the Mets will finish very close to .500 this year. But that's also a rather simple way to look at it.
In my opinion, 31-28 represents neither the best nor worst case scenario, but a fair middle ground. Arguments can be made in either direction.
THREE REASONS WHY THE METS WILL FINISH ABOVE .500
(1)
The Phillies have traded away Shane Victorino and Hunter Pence.
The Marlins have traded away Gaby Sanchez, Omar Infante, Hanley Ramirez, and Anibal Sanchez (among others).
These two teams have arguably gotten worse since they've last played the Mets, and they represent 18 of the Mets remaining games. Based solely on their current head-to-head records, they project to go 12-6 in those games. Given the above changes, outpacing that projection isn't unreasonable.
(2)
The model above suggests that, because the Mets were swept in Houston, they won't win another game. I'm not a betting man, but if I were I would think it fair to say the Mets will take at least one of three.
Of the sub-.500 teams the Mets play going forward, only one (Miami) is within eight games of .500. After that, it's Milwaukee (-10), Philadelphia (-12), San Diego (-16), Colorado (-26), and Houston (-34). All of these teams have significant issues, and represent a prime opportunity for the Mets to fatten their record.
They also have left room for improvement against some opponents. The Mets have gone 4-17 against Cincinnati and Washington this year, and with 9 games remaining can look to improve upon that. If they even go a paltry 3-6 in those games, it represents a net gain against the projection.
(3)
The opportunity for internal improvement. It's no secret that the bullpen has been, well, terrible. But there are some bright spots - Josh Edgin has pitched great, giving up only a single earned run since his ML debut, and sporting a gaudy 16.2 K/9. Jon Rauch has quietly been solid, with a 1.32 ERA in his last 18 appearances (2ER/13.2IP). He struggled between mid-May and early June, but he has a 2.17 ERA otherwise to go along with his career best 1.062 WHIP.
On offense, Ike Davis' consistent resurgence has turned first base into a position of strength. His 20 home runs lead all players from the position, and his ability to hit somewhat competently against lefties has allowed additional flexibility for Terry Collins. Similarly, the improvement of players like Andres Torres and the out-of-nowhere-mashing of Scott Hairston both bode well for this team.
THREE REASONS WHY THE METS WON'T FINISH ABOVE .500
(1)
Their pitching. The bullpen has struggled. And struggled. And struggled. They could improve as the season wears on, but it's unlikely that they will make significant strides. The starting pitching has also been shaky lately, and plenty of uncertainty surrounds the vacancies left by Dillon Gee and Johan Santana. Can the Mets win with Hefner filling in? Is Matt Harvey as good as he looked? The jury is out right now, but these are questions that need answers soon, before it's too late.
(2)
The rest of the offense. The Mets are getting almost nothing from their outfield, outside Scott Hairston. Jason Bay is still lost, Andres Torres' OBP is high, but his .320 SLG undoes the bulk of that. Mike Baxter's return offers a glimmer of hope and solidifies a potential platoon in left field, but that leaves the Mets with, at most, 1.5 effective outfielders at any moment. The infield (Davis/Murphy/Wright/Tejada) has been collectively solid of late, but it's going to continue to hurt the Mets when 5-9 in the batting order are dragging.
(3)
Emotions. The Mets' last homestand saw the wheels fall off the wagon, and then the wagon combusted, and then the ashes threw a hanging curveball to Matt Kemp. The Mets have been, by most admissions, playing better than their talent would suggest. When their long-touted locker room chemistry began to lull, things just got worse. Pedro Beato's demotion is a step in the right direction, but after three terrible weeks it leaves one to wonder if they can regain the feel-good vibe from the spring.
The Mets had a .544 winning percentage in April, May, and June. They're .292 going into their last game in July. The level of competition going forward suggests that they could go either way. If they play the way they have so far this season, .500 is attainable. If they catch a few breaks, they could end up better than that.
Thursday, July 12, 2012
A look at Wins Above Replacement: Ruben Tejada
When Ruben Tejada has been healthy, he's been a very good shortstop. So good, in fact, that Mets fans have begun to forget about the guy who used to play shortstop for them. See? Forgotten.
(Click to enlarge)
[NOTE: National League shortstops are in bold, American League shortstops are italicized]
We can draw two quick and dirty conclusions from this chart:
1. The two sites do show inconsistency in their grading of shortstops. Troy Tulowitzki, for example, fails to even show up in the Baseball-Reference list.
2. Though his playing time has been limited, Ruben Tejada has the second-highest MbWAR and fifth-highest MfWAR among NL shortstops.
Certainly due to the uncertainties of baseball, and to his level of inexperience, it's unfair to use this data to say that Tejada is an all-star caliber shortstop. However, it does seem fair to say that Tejada, when on the field, has certainly played like one. Let's hope that it's a trend that continues, because he looks to be headed for a bright and prosperous future.
The old guy is currently hitting .264/.336/.378, with 22 RBI and 27 XBH in 384 PA's.
The new guy is currently hitting .325/.381/.405 with 12 RBI and 13 XBH in 182 PA's.
Though a smaller sample size, it's not very tough to see who's doing better at the plate. But let's make two further comparisons:
FIRST: How does Tejada at 22 compare to the old guy at 22?
Well, he won't play more games, because Jose (Who-se?) Reyes appeared in a career high 161 at age 22. In those games (733 PA's), he hit .273/.300/.386, with 58 RBI and 60(!) stolen bases. It is important to note here that many SABRmetricians discount the value of steals (an opinion I share. Argument: The Mets stole 130 bases last year, and scored 718 runs. They're on pace to steal 85 this year, and score 742, their highest total in five years). Anyway...
The people who spend their time collecting all these stats so people like me can whine about them have come up with a stat called Wins Above Replacement (WAR), which basically sums up the overall value of a player. The nice thing about it is that you can use it to compare seasons and careers of multiple players; its formulated to be consistent and comparable from year to year, and, to a limited extent, from position to position (If someone is a 5 WAR second baseman, it doesn't really hold that they would be a 5 WAR center fielder. Also, it isn't necessarily fair to say that a 4.0 WAR first baseman is a better or more valuable player than a 3.7 WAR shortstop, as first base is the far-easier defensive position). Also, it's important to note that WAR is a "counting" statistic; it doesn't fluctuate like batting average. It accumulates or subtracts based on a player's performance relative to "replacement-level". In other words, for a player's WAR to decrease, they would have to play worse than replacement-level.
There are two primary sources for WAR: Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference. Each site calculates it somewhat differently, so someone's WAR on Fangraphs (denoted fWAR) wouldn't compare directly to someone's WAR on Baseball-Reference (denoted rWAR). You can find more information on how they're calculated on their respective sites.
Jose Reyes' age 22 season earned him a 1.4 rWAR and a 2.3 fWAR. Ruben Tejada has a 1.6 rWAR and a 1.3 fWAR this year. According to Baseball-Reference, Tejada's play in 41 games alone contributes more value to the Mets' success this year than Jose Reyes' play in 161 games did in 2005! On Fangraphs it isn't yet, but Tejada is certainly on the pace to top Reyes' season. To provide a closer comparison, however, I'm going to modify these a little bit. I'm going to call this "Marginal WAR", or MfWAR and MrWAR. I'm going to do this by dividing their WAR by plate appearances, to calculate how valuable each player is on a direct proportion to playing time.
Jose Reyes:
MfWAR: 0.00314
MrWAR: 0.00191
Ruben Tejada:
MfWAR: 0.00714
MrWAR: 0.00879
Depending on which site you use, Ruben Tejada has been between 2.27 and 4.6 times more valuable than Jose Reyes on a per-plate-appearance level (NOTE: This does not mean that each Ruben Tejada plate appearance is so much more valuable than one from Reyes. I chose to use PA's as I feel they best represent a player's portion of offensive and defensive playing time.) Were Tejada to play at this level for an entire season, it would translate to roughly 5.5-6.0 rWAR (Baseball-Reference defines 6.0+ as "all-star"). Is this sufficient to say that Tejada is an all-star caliber short stop? Certainly not in itself, though it does provide a good context about his level of play.
To consider his "all-star" eligibility, we should look at how he stacks up to other major league shortstops. Which brings us to...
SECOND: How does Tejada compare to other MLB Shortstops in 2012?
Ruben Tejada is currently the second-youngest everyday shortstop in the major leagues (He is older than Starlin Castro of the Cubs. He is also older than Atlanta's opening-day shortstop, Tyler Pastornicky, who last appeared as a pinch runner on May 30th and has been replaced by Andrelton Simmons.) Tejada presently ranks 14th in fWAR (tied with Jose Reyes and Alcides Escobar) and 9th in fWAR (tied with Zack Cosart) in the MLB. (Fun Fact: both sites rank him above Derek Jeter!). However, in both cases, the bulk of players above him have played significantly more. So, for fun's sake, let's break down the top 15 players on each scale by Marginal WAR:
(Click to enlarge)
[NOTE: National League shortstops are in bold, American League shortstops are italicized]
We can draw two quick and dirty conclusions from this chart:
1. The two sites do show inconsistency in their grading of shortstops. Troy Tulowitzki, for example, fails to even show up in the Baseball-Reference list.
2. Though his playing time has been limited, Ruben Tejada has the second-highest MbWAR and fifth-highest MfWAR among NL shortstops.
Certainly due to the uncertainties of baseball, and to his level of inexperience, it's unfair to use this data to say that Tejada is an all-star caliber shortstop. However, it does seem fair to say that Tejada, when on the field, has certainly played like one. Let's hope that it's a trend that continues, because he looks to be headed for a bright and prosperous future.
Wednesday, June 27, 2012
Ike Davis is Once Again a Cromulent First Baseman
In honor of Ike Davis raising his batting average over the Mendoza Line for the first time this season, I decided it would be fitting to do a post about his recent hot streak, and his season as a whole.
Through 76 games, Ike has hit .201/.281/.376 with 11 doubles, 10 home runs, and 41 RBI. When his "hot streak" began, he was hitting .166/.244/.276, with six doubles, five home runs, and 21 RBI. Let's look at what he's done since, with a bit of context:
In 149 plate appearances last year (which many considered to resemble a potential All-Star year), Ike Davis hit .302/.383/.583, with eight doubles, a triple, seven home runs and 25 RBI.
Over his last 55 plate appearances, Ike has hit a whopping .347/.418/.755, with five doubles, five home runs, and 21 RBI. In the past 15 games (13 starts), Ike has pretty much matched what he did in 36 "breakout" games last season.
I think we can have a little confidence in Ike's "return".
Through 76 games, Ike has hit .201/.281/.376 with 11 doubles, 10 home runs, and 41 RBI. When his "hot streak" began, he was hitting .166/.244/.276, with six doubles, five home runs, and 21 RBI. Let's look at what he's done since, with a bit of context:
In 149 plate appearances last year (which many considered to resemble a potential All-Star year), Ike Davis hit .302/.383/.583, with eight doubles, a triple, seven home runs and 25 RBI.
Over his last 55 plate appearances, Ike has hit a whopping .347/.418/.755, with five doubles, five home runs, and 21 RBI. In the past 15 games (13 starts), Ike has pretty much matched what he did in 36 "breakout" games last season.
I think we can have a little confidence in Ike's "return".
Tuesday, June 19, 2012
In which I dissect the bullpen
As you can see here, the Mets' bullpen ranks 30th out of 30 teams in ERA. They're tied with Houston for 29th with a .275 BAA. They rank 22nd with 85 walks surrendered. Fortunately, they also rank 22nd in innings pitched, so their damage has been somewhat limited.
I would assert though, that "the Mets have the worst bullpen in baseball" does not necessarily hold, however; as the Mets may not currently hold the worst collection of relievers.
Exhibit A: Manny Acosta
Manny Acosta had a high ERA. Higher than anyone on the Mets not named Chris Schwinden. Acosta, however, pitched 13.1 more innings than Schwinden before getting axed.
Manny Acosta allowed 33 runs (29 earned) in his 22 innings, earning him an 11.86 ERA. Only two pitchers on the Mets have allowed more - Dillon Gee (45, 41 earned) and Jonathon Niese (35, 32 earned). They're both starting pitchers, however. Dillon Gee has pitched 61.1 more innings than Acosta, Niese 53.1.
Thanks to ESPN, we can see rather quickly that the the Met 'pen has allowed 113 earned runs in 188.1 innings, giving them 5.40 ERA. Quick subtraction shows us that, minus Acosta, those numbers shrink to 84 ER in 166.1 innings. Their ERA? 4.55, nearly a full run less. They move all the way up to 29th! My argument is, albeit weakly, already proven!
But that's a little too simplistic. Let's see how the current bullpen measures up. Currently*, the Mets carry Frank Francisco, Jon Rauch, Bobby Parnell, Tim Byrdak, Miguel Batista**, Jeremy Hefner**, and Elvin Ramirez as relievers. Let's take a look at their collective performance in 2012.
* Ramon Ramirez is being included as his absence is health-related, unlike the other excluded relievers who were either optioned or designated for assignment.
** Only relief statistics are included here.
[Click to embiggen]
So, they have a 4.41 ERA. Not great, but quite close to last year's 4.33. Some things have improved -- They're getting more strikeouts (8.41 K/9, vs. 7.91).
Two important takeaways from this:
1. They're improving. The worst two relievers, Acosta and DJ Carrasco, are no longer with the ball club. Francisco's ERA has dropped from 8.59 to 5.00 since May 14th.
2. Their "damage" will be limited. Dillon Gee's and Jonathon Niese's improvement over the past month, and Chris Young's stability in Mike Pelfrey's rotation slot will allow the Mets' to rely less on the 'pen, and the less they're used the better they will be.
And if all else fails, the Mets have built up some reinforcements in the minors. Pedro Beato and Jenrry Mejia will both be available before the All-Star Break. Given how poorly the bullpen has performed to this point, the future is much, much brighter than we all once thought.
I would assert though, that "the Mets have the worst bullpen in baseball" does not necessarily hold, however; as the Mets may not currently hold the worst collection of relievers.
Exhibit A: Manny Acosta
Manny Acosta had a high ERA. Higher than anyone on the Mets not named Chris Schwinden. Acosta, however, pitched 13.1 more innings than Schwinden before getting axed.
Manny Acosta allowed 33 runs (29 earned) in his 22 innings, earning him an 11.86 ERA. Only two pitchers on the Mets have allowed more - Dillon Gee (45, 41 earned) and Jonathon Niese (35, 32 earned). They're both starting pitchers, however. Dillon Gee has pitched 61.1 more innings than Acosta, Niese 53.1.
Thanks to ESPN, we can see rather quickly that the the Met 'pen has allowed 113 earned runs in 188.1 innings, giving them 5.40 ERA. Quick subtraction shows us that, minus Acosta, those numbers shrink to 84 ER in 166.1 innings. Their ERA? 4.55, nearly a full run less. They move all the way up to 29th! My argument is, albeit weakly, already proven!
But that's a little too simplistic. Let's see how the current bullpen measures up. Currently*, the Mets carry Frank Francisco, Jon Rauch, Bobby Parnell, Tim Byrdak, Miguel Batista**, Jeremy Hefner**, and Elvin Ramirez as relievers. Let's take a look at their collective performance in 2012.
* Ramon Ramirez is being included as his absence is health-related, unlike the other excluded relievers who were either optioned or designated for assignment.
** Only relief statistics are included here.
[Click to embiggen]
So, they have a 4.41 ERA. Not great, but quite close to last year's 4.33. Some things have improved -- They're getting more strikeouts (8.41 K/9, vs. 7.91).
Two important takeaways from this:
1. They're improving. The worst two relievers, Acosta and DJ Carrasco, are no longer with the ball club. Francisco's ERA has dropped from 8.59 to 5.00 since May 14th.
2. Their "damage" will be limited. Dillon Gee's and Jonathon Niese's improvement over the past month, and Chris Young's stability in Mike Pelfrey's rotation slot will allow the Mets' to rely less on the 'pen, and the less they're used the better they will be.
And if all else fails, the Mets have built up some reinforcements in the minors. Pedro Beato and Jenrry Mejia will both be available before the All-Star Break. Given how poorly the bullpen has performed to this point, the future is much, much brighter than we all once thought.
Sunday, June 17, 2012
The Mets after 64 (part 2!) -- By Batting Order
In my last post I broke down the production that the Mets have gotten out of each position on the field, and how they project going forward. Because it's basically the same data here, just organized differently, I'm not going to provide a spot-by-spot breakdown. I'm also going to, for kicks and giggles, put together my 'ideal' lineup based on the best performances in each spot.
Let's get started!
Again, a few notes:
1. These statistics only include those in the position (i.e. Ruben Tejada's at bats in the 8-hole are not included in his leadoff statistics)
2. I have again omitted including pitchers, as their offense is largely sporadic and highly unpredictable.
3. These statistics are as of 6/14.
(Click the position for a larger version of the statistics graphics)
FIRST:
SECOND:
THIRD:
FOURTH:
FIFTH:
SIXTH:
SEVENTH:
EIGHTH:
NINTH:
A few things to note this year:
- The Mets are getting excellent production out of their leadoff batters. Andres Torres weighs down the batting average, but his 19/15 BB/K ratio really has compensated for it. Kirk Nieuwenhuis and Ruben Tejada put up very similar numbers, Kirk swinging for a bit more power and Ruben getting on base better. The Mets seem to have two bonafide leadoff hitters; I would prefer Nieuwenhuis stay in the spot when Tejada returns, as Tejada has shown an adeptness in the 8th spot. If Ike Davis continues to struggle, however, Kirk could find his bat in the middle of the order in an attempt to plug the gaping 5-hole.
- Continuing with the leadoff point, they have scored 47 runs on 70 hits, with 5 home runs and 27 RBI. Jose Reyes has 30 runs scored on 72 hits, with 2 home runs and 16 RBI in Miami this year, in an almost identical sample size (299 PA's vs. 294). Maybe this argument is more fit for arguing that Reyes was not an ideal leadoff hitter. Maybe all those stolen bases weren't super important. The Mets' pace of 119 runs scored, 13 home runs, and 68 RBI are all better than Reyes' averages, and any of those numbers would be a top-3 total for him.
- Daniel Murphy has been so much better batting second (.319/.387/.404) than fifth (.283/.321/.368), in nearly identical samples. It's not even close. My completely uneducated guess is that batting fifth caused a shift in his strategy at the plate. His walk-rate plummeted, leading me to believe that he was trying to force himself to put more balls into play. Murph had found himself an excellent groove, moving others over and setting a clean table for David Wright and the middle of the order. When he got moved, he was expected to produce runs. While he certainly did a fine job, it plays against his strengths. Daniel won't hit many home runs, but I would say he might have the best eye at the plate on this team, save maybe David Wright.
- David Wright can hit third. No one else. Daniel Murphy can hit there when Wright as games off (sliding Tejada into the two-hole), but that's it. Wright's 52 starts here are, by far, the most any player has had in a particular lineup slot, behind Duda's 31 in the cleanup spot.
- The middle of the order has struggled mightily, but somehow look to combine for 66 home runs and over 300 RBI. Batters hitting fifth have slugged a collective .378, the second worst of any spot in the order, behind the eight spot. The struggles of Ike Davis and Jason Bay, and the injuries to Ruben Tejada have taken their toll here. A productive Davis would allow Duda to bat sixth, where he's hit .288/.345/.596 this year, with 5 home runs and 10 RBI in only 52 at bats. With a healthy Ruben Tejada, the Mets could slot Scott Hairston or Kirk Nieuwenhuis fifth depending on the matchup.
- 15(!) different hitters have been written into the 7th spot in the order this year. Josh Thole has performed the best, with a .351/.415/.432 line in 11 starts here. Aside from stabilizing the catcher position, Thole's healthy return lengthens the lineup.
- In 119 plate appearances, non-pitchers have hit an astounding .299/.361/.514 in the ninth spot. They have gotten excellent production out of their pinch hitters.
Based strictly on this data, my 'ideal' lineup would be:
Kirk Nieuwenhuis, CF
Daniel Murphy, 2B
David Wright, 3B
Scott Hairston, LF
Ike Davis, 1B
Lucas Duda, DH
Josh Thole, C
Ruben Tejada, SS
Mike Baxter, RF
Which is largely similar to what the Mets are running out right now, swapping Mike Baxter out for the pitcher and Ruben Tejada for Omar Quintanilla.
Let's get started!
Again, a few notes:
1. These statistics only include those in the position (i.e. Ruben Tejada's at bats in the 8-hole are not included in his leadoff statistics)
2. I have again omitted including pitchers, as their offense is largely sporadic and highly unpredictable.
3. These statistics are as of 6/14.
(Click the position for a larger version of the statistics graphics)
FIRST:
SECOND:
THIRD:
FOURTH:
FIFTH:
SIXTH:
SEVENTH:
EIGHTH:
NINTH:
A few things to note this year:
- The Mets are getting excellent production out of their leadoff batters. Andres Torres weighs down the batting average, but his 19/15 BB/K ratio really has compensated for it. Kirk Nieuwenhuis and Ruben Tejada put up very similar numbers, Kirk swinging for a bit more power and Ruben getting on base better. The Mets seem to have two bonafide leadoff hitters; I would prefer Nieuwenhuis stay in the spot when Tejada returns, as Tejada has shown an adeptness in the 8th spot. If Ike Davis continues to struggle, however, Kirk could find his bat in the middle of the order in an attempt to plug the gaping 5-hole.
- Continuing with the leadoff point, they have scored 47 runs on 70 hits, with 5 home runs and 27 RBI. Jose Reyes has 30 runs scored on 72 hits, with 2 home runs and 16 RBI in Miami this year, in an almost identical sample size (299 PA's vs. 294). Maybe this argument is more fit for arguing that Reyes was not an ideal leadoff hitter. Maybe all those stolen bases weren't super important. The Mets' pace of 119 runs scored, 13 home runs, and 68 RBI are all better than Reyes' averages, and any of those numbers would be a top-3 total for him.
- Daniel Murphy has been so much better batting second (.319/.387/.404) than fifth (.283/.321/.368), in nearly identical samples. It's not even close. My completely uneducated guess is that batting fifth caused a shift in his strategy at the plate. His walk-rate plummeted, leading me to believe that he was trying to force himself to put more balls into play. Murph had found himself an excellent groove, moving others over and setting a clean table for David Wright and the middle of the order. When he got moved, he was expected to produce runs. While he certainly did a fine job, it plays against his strengths. Daniel won't hit many home runs, but I would say he might have the best eye at the plate on this team, save maybe David Wright.
- David Wright can hit third. No one else. Daniel Murphy can hit there when Wright as games off (sliding Tejada into the two-hole), but that's it. Wright's 52 starts here are, by far, the most any player has had in a particular lineup slot, behind Duda's 31 in the cleanup spot.
- The middle of the order has struggled mightily, but somehow look to combine for 66 home runs and over 300 RBI. Batters hitting fifth have slugged a collective .378, the second worst of any spot in the order, behind the eight spot. The struggles of Ike Davis and Jason Bay, and the injuries to Ruben Tejada have taken their toll here. A productive Davis would allow Duda to bat sixth, where he's hit .288/.345/.596 this year, with 5 home runs and 10 RBI in only 52 at bats. With a healthy Ruben Tejada, the Mets could slot Scott Hairston or Kirk Nieuwenhuis fifth depending on the matchup.
- 15(!) different hitters have been written into the 7th spot in the order this year. Josh Thole has performed the best, with a .351/.415/.432 line in 11 starts here. Aside from stabilizing the catcher position, Thole's healthy return lengthens the lineup.
- In 119 plate appearances, non-pitchers have hit an astounding .299/.361/.514 in the ninth spot. They have gotten excellent production out of their pinch hitters.
Based strictly on this data, my 'ideal' lineup would be:
Kirk Nieuwenhuis, CF
Daniel Murphy, 2B
David Wright, 3B
Scott Hairston, LF
Ike Davis, 1B
Lucas Duda, DH
Josh Thole, C
Ruben Tejada, SS
Mike Baxter, RF
Which is largely similar to what the Mets are running out right now, swapping Mike Baxter out for the pitcher and Ruben Tejada for Omar Quintanilla.
Saturday, June 16, 2012
The Mets after 64 -- by Position
Terry Collins has said multiple times that the success of the 2012 New York Mets (I'm not going to link each player because of the sheer number; click for all the data) would depend on the ability for all 25 players to contribute. He made a pretty conservative estimate. Through the first 64 games, 39 different players have made appearances for the Mets -- 20 batters, and 19 pitchers (20 if you consider Rob Johnson's scoreless inning against Toronto). There have been at least three different players to start at each position, and four of the eight opening-day position players have spent time on the DL (CF Andres Torres, LF Jason Bay, SS Ruben Tejada, and C Josh Thole). Five players have started at Shortstop, and six have started at Left Field through the first 64 games of the season. Last month I did a 30-game review of the starting line-up. Given that half of those guys haven't done much since then, I'm taking a different approach this time. Today I'm doing a to-date review of each position by aggregate production (i.e. the total statistics of players at that position). Later this weekend I'm going to break it down by batting order.
Some notes:
1. The statistics only include data from when that player was at that position, not their overall production. Beneath the players' statistics are the totals, and then an extrapolation of those totals to a 162-game season.
2. The statistics do not include games played on or after 6/15.
3. I have not included offensive statistics from pitchers.
4. Designated Hitters and Pinch Hitters' statistics have been combined.
So, without further ado, let's begin!
(Click the position for a larger version of the statistics)
CATCHER:
Some notes:
1. The statistics only include data from when that player was at that position, not their overall production. Beneath the players' statistics are the totals, and then an extrapolation of those totals to a 162-game season.
2. The statistics do not include games played on or after 6/15.
3. I have not included offensive statistics from pitchers.
4. Designated Hitters and Pinch Hitters' statistics have been combined.
So, without further ado, let's begin!
(Click the position for a larger version of the statistics)
CATCHER:
The Mets haven't gotten much production from their backstops, but this is largely due to Josh Thole's extended absence after suffering a concussion on May 7th. In that time, Rob Johnson clearly outpaced Mike Nickeas offensively, but the team showed their preference for Nickeas' defensive abilities as they optioned Johnson when Thole returned. As Thole readjusts and collects more at bats, I would expect the .240/.304/.304 line to improve. The catchers are on pace for a collective 48 RBI, but I expect them to outpace that number.
It's also worth noting that Josh Thole currently has a bWAR of 1.2 this year, which equals his collective bWAR from 2009-2011. While he lacks power, he is continuing to show that his ability to hit for average and get on base provide solid offensive value at his position.
FIRST BASE:
First base has been an adventure so far this year; the struggles of Ike Davis have been thoroughly, extensively, and continuously chronicled. That said, he's been heating up of late, having hit in six straight games, with 1 HR, 2 2B, and 7 RBI in that span.
While the projected 17 home runs from first base are, along with the collective .197 average, much lower than everyone was hoping for, the 78 RBI are at least respectable. Like the catchers, I would bet that both these numbers are topped as Davis' numbers begin to normalize. Realistically, Ike's continued improvement is a necessity for the Mets to continue to compete in August and beyond. His struggles have occurred almost exclusively at home; his road numbers (.257/.341/.477) compare favorably to his career averages. Depending on how long Ike's streak carries, the outlook here could change quickly.
SECOND BASE:
The keystone has been a bit of a mixed bag this year. To his credit, the difference in Daniel Murphy's defense over the first two months has been night and day. The oddity in that though, is that he routinely makes highlight-reel plays and struggles on the simple ones. My (note: purely conjecture) take from it is that his shortcomings at this point are purely mental; Murphy may be second guessing or trying to anticipate things. He definitely has the athleticism for the position, and will continue to improve as it becomes more instinctive. Plays like this have to be encouraging, and no one can question Murph's work ethic.
Offensively, he's been struggling of late, but he'll likely be able to pick his average back up as the year continues. He's been extremely durable, accounting for 221 of the 241 plate appearances by Mets' second basemen this year, and just under 25% of his hits have gone for extra bases. Backups Justin Turner and Jordany Valdespin collectively have put up Murphian numbers.
The lingering question here is that of power. Murphy has some pop (he actually led the ball club in home runs in 2009 with 12), but has yet to hit a four-bagger this year (he has the most plate appearances in the MLB without a home run in 2012). I'll expect him to hit a few as the year carries on, but if the Mets can get the projected 76 RBI from the position, they'll take it.
THIRD BASE:
David Wright.
But seriously, the Mets dodged a major bullet with Wright's broken pinky in April. He's cooled off significantly in the past few weeks, but is still having a monster season, and could end up near 25 HR / 100 RBI and well over 100 runs scored. That, combined with his batting average and on base percentage, spells an MVP-caliber season from Wright. Production at third base otherwise has been poor, as Ronny Cedeno, Justin Turner, and Vinny Rottino combined to go 4-21 with 3 RBI, 2 runs scored and zero walks.
There's not much else I can say that hasn't been said already. Wright is simply on another level this year, and isn't showing a lot of signs of slowing down. He's an extra base machine (39.7% of his hits have gone for extra bases), he's walking more often than striking out, and his defense has been better than in the past two years. He's basically the R.A. Dickey of hitting this year.
SHORTSTOP:
I'm going to start this section by linking to a blog called Lovable Losers, who did an excellent job comparing the production of the Mets group of shortstops to that of Miami Marlins' shortstop Jose Reyes (advantage: Mets). His statistics don't include games from 6/13 forward, but he provides excellent insight and analysis which is partially responsible for me doing these posts. It's a classic case of small sample size, admittedly, but it goes without saying that were the opposite case true, it would be rubbed in the face of the team relentlessly.
The Shorstops aren't scoring as many runs as Reyes averaged with the Mets, but the dropoff isn't nearly as significant as many expected. The important takeaways this far are that Ruben Tejada is a quality major league hitter (and he's only 22!), and Omar Quintanilla was an excellent signing by Sandy Alderson. It's unlikely that he'll remain on the team when Ronny Cedeno and Ruben Tejada are both healthy, but he will be the everyday shortstop going forward, until Tejada's return.
LEFT FIELD:
Two things stick out here -- Kirk Nieuwenhuis is only 9 plate appearances away from being the "primary" left fielder (with Jason Bay returning to the DL, this will likely occur), and Scott Hairston really should have that distinction. (After Bay's injury last night, Hairston hit a 2-run home run, his 9th of the year, in left field last night. Think about that. Scott Hairston has 120 at bats, and 9 home runs. Until Bay's return, he will likely see every start against left-handed pitching, given his ridiculous .310/.333/.607 line. His hitting against RHP isn't as good, but his .417 slugging percentage is good enough to gamble on a low batting average.
Jason Bay has gone from a disappointment, to a flat-out shame. No matter his poor production (which I partially debunked here), few players have given as much effort as Bay. He has spent his two-plus seasons in Queens with only one task - to endear himself to Mets fans. His injuries have all come as a result of his effort -- two concussions from crashing into walls, and a broken rib from diving for a ball. Say what you will about him, Jason Bay has spent two and a half years literally putting his health and well-being on the line for this team.
Speaking of, it's a damn shame that Mike Baxter will miss so much time. Aside from all the storylines (however compelling they may be, and they certainly are), his bat would pair perfectly with Hairston's in a left field platoon. The Mike Hairston/Scott Baxter (pick one, neither really work) platoon has hit .359/.407/.664 with seven home runs and 27 RBI in only 128 at bats. That's a damn good left fielder. It's so good, in fact, it outpaces Josh Hamilton's 2010 MVP season. It's certainly unfair of me to say that's what would continue to happen, but it's a gamble I would take without question.
CENTER FIELD:
Last winter, the Mets traded embattled centerfielder Angel Pagan to San Francisco for reliever Ramon Ramirez. Andres Torres came along for the ride, but ultimately was a 'pot sweetener', if you will. If Kirk Nieuwenhuis had not missed the majority of 2011 after shoulder surgery, he probably would have gone into this season as the opening day centerfielder. But he did, so he wasn't. Torres, most project, is a solid fourth outfielder, given his fantastic defense and largely average bat. Nieuwenhuis was a hotly-debated prospect coming off a significant injury. At every level of the minors, Captain Kirk has been labeled as a guy who wouldn't succeed. He was generally projected as a platoon guy, given his disparate righty/lefty splits. However, he proceeded to hit, and continue to hit, consistently, at every level. His career minor league slashline is a respectable .280/.354/.464. Notably, it's roughly what he hit at every level -- he didn't necessarily feast on A-level pitching and struggle in the higher levels. His major league slashline this year is .297/.358/.440. He strikes out a lot, but that's followed him at every level.
Looking above, it's clear that he's been at his best in center field. He's been decidedly better than Torres, and is being rewarded by Terry Collins with the majority of playing time . His .196 average against left-handed pitching needs to improve if he's to become a fixture in the Mets' future, but he has shown some encouraging signs so far. That and his impressive defense make him an exciting prospect. Flying under the radar because of the Bryce Harper hype, Nieuwenhuis is having a Rookie-of-the-Year-caliber season this year and is showing no signs of slowing down.
RIGHT FIELD:
Lucas Duda has been as good offensively as he's been poor defensively. He had a bit of a slow start to his season, which comes with precedent (he struggled in 2010, and didn't hit his first home run until his 110th PA of 2011). However, he's slugged .574 over his last 20 games, despite only hitting .250 in that span. While the average may not be ideal, the Mets will gladly take his six home runs and 18 RBI in that span (49HR and 145RBI pace extrapolated over 162 games). The big takeaway, though, is that Duda hit .292 last year. If he can push his average back toward that number, while still maintaining the run production, Lucas can be a monster in right field. He is still raw as a power hitter, but displays raw strength similar to Mike Stanton (Duda's home runs have very similar average distance and speed off the bat to Stanton -- 412.7' and 106.33mph vs. 413.9' and 107mph). It'd be somewhat foolish of me to insist that Lucas Duda is destined to produce what Stanton does, but he's certainly capable of the same contact. And, of course, the better his offense, the less anyone will notice his defense.
PINCH/DESIGNATED HITTER:
Against expectation, the Mets have had excellent production from their pinch hitters and from the DH position. The other side of the coin, though, is that many of the players responsible for this production are now regulars in the line-up due to injury (Scott Hairston) or on the DL (Mike Baxter, Justin Turner). Either way though, Terry Collins has been pushing the proper buttons to get production out of guys you haven't heard of, and that's more or less been the tale of the Mets' season as a whole this year. It says a lot that the Mets could get 100 rbi from pitchers and pinch hitters this year.
So there you have it. Without Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran, with a $52 Million payroll cut that's been ballyhooed and thrown in our faces for months, Despite the struggles of Ike Davis, the absence of Jason Bay, the absence of a running game, and a laundry list of injuries, the Mets have scored 287 runs in their first 64 games, putting them on pace to outscore last year's team by 14 runs. They're 4 games better than last year's team, and are a much, much more fun team to watch. We really don't know what their potential is, or what the future holds, but it's safe to say that the Mets are righting the ship.
Let's go Mets!
It's also worth noting that Josh Thole currently has a bWAR of 1.2 this year, which equals his collective bWAR from 2009-2011. While he lacks power, he is continuing to show that his ability to hit for average and get on base provide solid offensive value at his position.
FIRST BASE:
First base has been an adventure so far this year; the struggles of Ike Davis have been thoroughly, extensively, and continuously chronicled. That said, he's been heating up of late, having hit in six straight games, with 1 HR, 2 2B, and 7 RBI in that span.
While the projected 17 home runs from first base are, along with the collective .197 average, much lower than everyone was hoping for, the 78 RBI are at least respectable. Like the catchers, I would bet that both these numbers are topped as Davis' numbers begin to normalize. Realistically, Ike's continued improvement is a necessity for the Mets to continue to compete in August and beyond. His struggles have occurred almost exclusively at home; his road numbers (.257/.341/.477) compare favorably to his career averages. Depending on how long Ike's streak carries, the outlook here could change quickly.
SECOND BASE:
The keystone has been a bit of a mixed bag this year. To his credit, the difference in Daniel Murphy's defense over the first two months has been night and day. The oddity in that though, is that he routinely makes highlight-reel plays and struggles on the simple ones. My (note: purely conjecture) take from it is that his shortcomings at this point are purely mental; Murphy may be second guessing or trying to anticipate things. He definitely has the athleticism for the position, and will continue to improve as it becomes more instinctive. Plays like this have to be encouraging, and no one can question Murph's work ethic.
Offensively, he's been struggling of late, but he'll likely be able to pick his average back up as the year continues. He's been extremely durable, accounting for 221 of the 241 plate appearances by Mets' second basemen this year, and just under 25% of his hits have gone for extra bases. Backups Justin Turner and Jordany Valdespin collectively have put up Murphian numbers.
The lingering question here is that of power. Murphy has some pop (he actually led the ball club in home runs in 2009 with 12), but has yet to hit a four-bagger this year (he has the most plate appearances in the MLB without a home run in 2012). I'll expect him to hit a few as the year carries on, but if the Mets can get the projected 76 RBI from the position, they'll take it.
THIRD BASE:
David Wright.
But seriously, the Mets dodged a major bullet with Wright's broken pinky in April. He's cooled off significantly in the past few weeks, but is still having a monster season, and could end up near 25 HR / 100 RBI and well over 100 runs scored. That, combined with his batting average and on base percentage, spells an MVP-caliber season from Wright. Production at third base otherwise has been poor, as Ronny Cedeno, Justin Turner, and Vinny Rottino combined to go 4-21 with 3 RBI, 2 runs scored and zero walks.
There's not much else I can say that hasn't been said already. Wright is simply on another level this year, and isn't showing a lot of signs of slowing down. He's an extra base machine (39.7% of his hits have gone for extra bases), he's walking more often than striking out, and his defense has been better than in the past two years. He's basically the R.A. Dickey of hitting this year.
SHORTSTOP:
I'm going to start this section by linking to a blog called Lovable Losers, who did an excellent job comparing the production of the Mets group of shortstops to that of Miami Marlins' shortstop Jose Reyes (advantage: Mets). His statistics don't include games from 6/13 forward, but he provides excellent insight and analysis which is partially responsible for me doing these posts. It's a classic case of small sample size, admittedly, but it goes without saying that were the opposite case true, it would be rubbed in the face of the team relentlessly.
The Shorstops aren't scoring as many runs as Reyes averaged with the Mets, but the dropoff isn't nearly as significant as many expected. The important takeaways this far are that Ruben Tejada is a quality major league hitter (and he's only 22!), and Omar Quintanilla was an excellent signing by Sandy Alderson. It's unlikely that he'll remain on the team when Ronny Cedeno and Ruben Tejada are both healthy, but he will be the everyday shortstop going forward, until Tejada's return.
LEFT FIELD:
Two things stick out here -- Kirk Nieuwenhuis is only 9 plate appearances away from being the "primary" left fielder (with Jason Bay returning to the DL, this will likely occur), and Scott Hairston really should have that distinction. (After Bay's injury last night, Hairston hit a 2-run home run, his 9th of the year, in left field last night. Think about that. Scott Hairston has 120 at bats, and 9 home runs. Until Bay's return, he will likely see every start against left-handed pitching, given his ridiculous .310/.333/.607 line. His hitting against RHP isn't as good, but his .417 slugging percentage is good enough to gamble on a low batting average.
Jason Bay has gone from a disappointment, to a flat-out shame. No matter his poor production (which I partially debunked here), few players have given as much effort as Bay. He has spent his two-plus seasons in Queens with only one task - to endear himself to Mets fans. His injuries have all come as a result of his effort -- two concussions from crashing into walls, and a broken rib from diving for a ball. Say what you will about him, Jason Bay has spent two and a half years literally putting his health and well-being on the line for this team.
Speaking of, it's a damn shame that Mike Baxter will miss so much time. Aside from all the storylines (however compelling they may be, and they certainly are), his bat would pair perfectly with Hairston's in a left field platoon. The Mike Hairston/Scott Baxter (pick one, neither really work) platoon has hit .359/.407/.664 with seven home runs and 27 RBI in only 128 at bats. That's a damn good left fielder. It's so good, in fact, it outpaces Josh Hamilton's 2010 MVP season. It's certainly unfair of me to say that's what would continue to happen, but it's a gamble I would take without question.
CENTER FIELD:
Last winter, the Mets traded embattled centerfielder Angel Pagan to San Francisco for reliever Ramon Ramirez. Andres Torres came along for the ride, but ultimately was a 'pot sweetener', if you will. If Kirk Nieuwenhuis had not missed the majority of 2011 after shoulder surgery, he probably would have gone into this season as the opening day centerfielder. But he did, so he wasn't. Torres, most project, is a solid fourth outfielder, given his fantastic defense and largely average bat. Nieuwenhuis was a hotly-debated prospect coming off a significant injury. At every level of the minors, Captain Kirk has been labeled as a guy who wouldn't succeed. He was generally projected as a platoon guy, given his disparate righty/lefty splits. However, he proceeded to hit, and continue to hit, consistently, at every level. His career minor league slashline is a respectable .280/.354/.464. Notably, it's roughly what he hit at every level -- he didn't necessarily feast on A-level pitching and struggle in the higher levels. His major league slashline this year is .297/.358/.440. He strikes out a lot, but that's followed him at every level.
Looking above, it's clear that he's been at his best in center field. He's been decidedly better than Torres, and is being rewarded by Terry Collins with the majority of playing time . His .196 average against left-handed pitching needs to improve if he's to become a fixture in the Mets' future, but he has shown some encouraging signs so far. That and his impressive defense make him an exciting prospect. Flying under the radar because of the Bryce Harper hype, Nieuwenhuis is having a Rookie-of-the-Year-caliber season this year and is showing no signs of slowing down.
RIGHT FIELD:
Lucas Duda has been as good offensively as he's been poor defensively. He had a bit of a slow start to his season, which comes with precedent (he struggled in 2010, and didn't hit his first home run until his 110th PA of 2011). However, he's slugged .574 over his last 20 games, despite only hitting .250 in that span. While the average may not be ideal, the Mets will gladly take his six home runs and 18 RBI in that span (49HR and 145RBI pace extrapolated over 162 games). The big takeaway, though, is that Duda hit .292 last year. If he can push his average back toward that number, while still maintaining the run production, Lucas can be a monster in right field. He is still raw as a power hitter, but displays raw strength similar to Mike Stanton (Duda's home runs have very similar average distance and speed off the bat to Stanton -- 412.7' and 106.33mph vs. 413.9' and 107mph). It'd be somewhat foolish of me to insist that Lucas Duda is destined to produce what Stanton does, but he's certainly capable of the same contact. And, of course, the better his offense, the less anyone will notice his defense.
PINCH/DESIGNATED HITTER:
Against expectation, the Mets have had excellent production from their pinch hitters and from the DH position. The other side of the coin, though, is that many of the players responsible for this production are now regulars in the line-up due to injury (Scott Hairston) or on the DL (Mike Baxter, Justin Turner). Either way though, Terry Collins has been pushing the proper buttons to get production out of guys you haven't heard of, and that's more or less been the tale of the Mets' season as a whole this year. It says a lot that the Mets could get 100 rbi from pitchers and pinch hitters this year.
So there you have it. Without Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran, with a $52 Million payroll cut that's been ballyhooed and thrown in our faces for months, Despite the struggles of Ike Davis, the absence of Jason Bay, the absence of a running game, and a laundry list of injuries, the Mets have scored 287 runs in their first 64 games, putting them on pace to outscore last year's team by 14 runs. They're 4 games better than last year's team, and are a much, much more fun team to watch. We really don't know what their potential is, or what the future holds, but it's safe to say that the Mets are righting the ship.
Let's go Mets!
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