Some notes:
1. The statistics only include data from when that player was at that position, not their overall production. Beneath the players' statistics are the totals, and then an extrapolation of those totals to a 162-game season.
2. The statistics do not include games played on or after 6/15.
3. I have not included offensive statistics from pitchers.
4. Designated Hitters and Pinch Hitters' statistics have been combined.
So, without further ado, let's begin!
(Click the position for a larger version of the statistics)
CATCHER:
The Mets haven't gotten much production from their backstops, but this is largely due to Josh Thole's extended absence after suffering a concussion on May 7th. In that time, Rob Johnson clearly outpaced Mike Nickeas offensively, but the team showed their preference for Nickeas' defensive abilities as they optioned Johnson when Thole returned. As Thole readjusts and collects more at bats, I would expect the .240/.304/.304 line to improve. The catchers are on pace for a collective 48 RBI, but I expect them to outpace that number.
It's also worth noting that Josh Thole currently has a bWAR of 1.2 this year, which equals his collective bWAR from 2009-2011. While he lacks power, he is continuing to show that his ability to hit for average and get on base provide solid offensive value at his position.
FIRST BASE:
First base has been an adventure so far this year; the struggles of Ike Davis have been thoroughly, extensively, and continuously chronicled. That said, he's been heating up of late, having hit in six straight games, with 1 HR, 2 2B, and 7 RBI in that span.
While the projected 17 home runs from first base are, along with the collective .197 average, much lower than everyone was hoping for, the 78 RBI are at least respectable. Like the catchers, I would bet that both these numbers are topped as Davis' numbers begin to normalize. Realistically, Ike's continued improvement is a necessity for the Mets to continue to compete in August and beyond. His struggles have occurred almost exclusively at home; his road numbers (.257/.341/.477) compare favorably to his career averages. Depending on how long Ike's streak carries, the outlook here could change quickly.
SECOND BASE:
The keystone has been a bit of a mixed bag this year. To his credit, the difference in Daniel Murphy's defense over the first two months has been night and day. The oddity in that though, is that he routinely makes highlight-reel plays and struggles on the simple ones. My (note: purely conjecture) take from it is that his shortcomings at this point are purely mental; Murphy may be second guessing or trying to anticipate things. He definitely has the athleticism for the position, and will continue to improve as it becomes more instinctive. Plays like this have to be encouraging, and no one can question Murph's work ethic.
Offensively, he's been struggling of late, but he'll likely be able to pick his average back up as the year continues. He's been extremely durable, accounting for 221 of the 241 plate appearances by Mets' second basemen this year, and just under 25% of his hits have gone for extra bases. Backups Justin Turner and Jordany Valdespin collectively have put up Murphian numbers.
The lingering question here is that of power. Murphy has some pop (he actually led the ball club in home runs in 2009 with 12), but has yet to hit a four-bagger this year (he has the most plate appearances in the MLB without a home run in 2012). I'll expect him to hit a few as the year carries on, but if the Mets can get the projected 76 RBI from the position, they'll take it.
THIRD BASE:
David Wright.
But seriously, the Mets dodged a major bullet with Wright's broken pinky in April. He's cooled off significantly in the past few weeks, but is still having a monster season, and could end up near 25 HR / 100 RBI and well over 100 runs scored. That, combined with his batting average and on base percentage, spells an MVP-caliber season from Wright. Production at third base otherwise has been poor, as Ronny Cedeno, Justin Turner, and Vinny Rottino combined to go 4-21 with 3 RBI, 2 runs scored and zero walks.
There's not much else I can say that hasn't been said already. Wright is simply on another level this year, and isn't showing a lot of signs of slowing down. He's an extra base machine (39.7% of his hits have gone for extra bases), he's walking more often than striking out, and his defense has been better than in the past two years. He's basically the R.A. Dickey of hitting this year.
SHORTSTOP:
I'm going to start this section by linking to a blog called Lovable Losers, who did an excellent job comparing the production of the Mets group of shortstops to that of Miami Marlins' shortstop Jose Reyes (advantage: Mets). His statistics don't include games from 6/13 forward, but he provides excellent insight and analysis which is partially responsible for me doing these posts. It's a classic case of small sample size, admittedly, but it goes without saying that were the opposite case true, it would be rubbed in the face of the team relentlessly.
The Shorstops aren't scoring as many runs as Reyes averaged with the Mets, but the dropoff isn't nearly as significant as many expected. The important takeaways this far are that Ruben Tejada is a quality major league hitter (and he's only 22!), and Omar Quintanilla was an excellent signing by Sandy Alderson. It's unlikely that he'll remain on the team when Ronny Cedeno and Ruben Tejada are both healthy, but he will be the everyday shortstop going forward, until Tejada's return.
LEFT FIELD:
Two things stick out here -- Kirk Nieuwenhuis is only 9 plate appearances away from being the "primary" left fielder (with Jason Bay returning to the DL, this will likely occur), and Scott Hairston really should have that distinction. (After Bay's injury last night, Hairston hit a 2-run home run, his 9th of the year, in left field last night. Think about that. Scott Hairston has 120 at bats, and 9 home runs. Until Bay's return, he will likely see every start against left-handed pitching, given his ridiculous .310/.333/.607 line. His hitting against RHP isn't as good, but his .417 slugging percentage is good enough to gamble on a low batting average.
Jason Bay has gone from a disappointment, to a flat-out shame. No matter his poor production (which I partially debunked here), few players have given as much effort as Bay. He has spent his two-plus seasons in Queens with only one task - to endear himself to Mets fans. His injuries have all come as a result of his effort -- two concussions from crashing into walls, and a broken rib from diving for a ball. Say what you will about him, Jason Bay has spent two and a half years literally putting his health and well-being on the line for this team.
Speaking of, it's a damn shame that Mike Baxter will miss so much time. Aside from all the storylines (however compelling they may be, and they certainly are), his bat would pair perfectly with Hairston's in a left field platoon. The Mike Hairston/Scott Baxter (pick one, neither really work) platoon has hit .359/.407/.664 with seven home runs and 27 RBI in only 128 at bats. That's a damn good left fielder. It's so good, in fact, it outpaces Josh Hamilton's 2010 MVP season. It's certainly unfair of me to say that's what would continue to happen, but it's a gamble I would take without question.
CENTER FIELD:
Last winter, the Mets traded embattled centerfielder Angel Pagan to San Francisco for reliever Ramon Ramirez. Andres Torres came along for the ride, but ultimately was a 'pot sweetener', if you will. If Kirk Nieuwenhuis had not missed the majority of 2011 after shoulder surgery, he probably would have gone into this season as the opening day centerfielder. But he did, so he wasn't. Torres, most project, is a solid fourth outfielder, given his fantastic defense and largely average bat. Nieuwenhuis was a hotly-debated prospect coming off a significant injury. At every level of the minors, Captain Kirk has been labeled as a guy who wouldn't succeed. He was generally projected as a platoon guy, given his disparate righty/lefty splits. However, he proceeded to hit, and continue to hit, consistently, at every level. His career minor league slashline is a respectable .280/.354/.464. Notably, it's roughly what he hit at every level -- he didn't necessarily feast on A-level pitching and struggle in the higher levels. His major league slashline this year is .297/.358/.440. He strikes out a lot, but that's followed him at every level.
Looking above, it's clear that he's been at his best in center field. He's been decidedly better than Torres, and is being rewarded by Terry Collins with the majority of playing time . His .196 average against left-handed pitching needs to improve if he's to become a fixture in the Mets' future, but he has shown some encouraging signs so far. That and his impressive defense make him an exciting prospect. Flying under the radar because of the Bryce Harper hype, Nieuwenhuis is having a Rookie-of-the-Year-caliber season this year and is showing no signs of slowing down.
RIGHT FIELD:
Lucas Duda has been as good offensively as he's been poor defensively. He had a bit of a slow start to his season, which comes with precedent (he struggled in 2010, and didn't hit his first home run until his 110th PA of 2011). However, he's slugged .574 over his last 20 games, despite only hitting .250 in that span. While the average may not be ideal, the Mets will gladly take his six home runs and 18 RBI in that span (49HR and 145RBI pace extrapolated over 162 games). The big takeaway, though, is that Duda hit .292 last year. If he can push his average back toward that number, while still maintaining the run production, Lucas can be a monster in right field. He is still raw as a power hitter, but displays raw strength similar to Mike Stanton (Duda's home runs have very similar average distance and speed off the bat to Stanton -- 412.7' and 106.33mph vs. 413.9' and 107mph). It'd be somewhat foolish of me to insist that Lucas Duda is destined to produce what Stanton does, but he's certainly capable of the same contact. And, of course, the better his offense, the less anyone will notice his defense.
PINCH/DESIGNATED HITTER:
Against expectation, the Mets have had excellent production from their pinch hitters and from the DH position. The other side of the coin, though, is that many of the players responsible for this production are now regulars in the line-up due to injury (Scott Hairston) or on the DL (Mike Baxter, Justin Turner). Either way though, Terry Collins has been pushing the proper buttons to get production out of guys you haven't heard of, and that's more or less been the tale of the Mets' season as a whole this year. It says a lot that the Mets could get 100 rbi from pitchers and pinch hitters this year.
So there you have it. Without Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran, with a $52 Million payroll cut that's been ballyhooed and thrown in our faces for months, Despite the struggles of Ike Davis, the absence of Jason Bay, the absence of a running game, and a laundry list of injuries, the Mets have scored 287 runs in their first 64 games, putting them on pace to outscore last year's team by 14 runs. They're 4 games better than last year's team, and are a much, much more fun team to watch. We really don't know what their potential is, or what the future holds, but it's safe to say that the Mets are righting the ship.
Let's go Mets!
It's also worth noting that Josh Thole currently has a bWAR of 1.2 this year, which equals his collective bWAR from 2009-2011. While he lacks power, he is continuing to show that his ability to hit for average and get on base provide solid offensive value at his position.
FIRST BASE:
First base has been an adventure so far this year; the struggles of Ike Davis have been thoroughly, extensively, and continuously chronicled. That said, he's been heating up of late, having hit in six straight games, with 1 HR, 2 2B, and 7 RBI in that span.
While the projected 17 home runs from first base are, along with the collective .197 average, much lower than everyone was hoping for, the 78 RBI are at least respectable. Like the catchers, I would bet that both these numbers are topped as Davis' numbers begin to normalize. Realistically, Ike's continued improvement is a necessity for the Mets to continue to compete in August and beyond. His struggles have occurred almost exclusively at home; his road numbers (.257/.341/.477) compare favorably to his career averages. Depending on how long Ike's streak carries, the outlook here could change quickly.
SECOND BASE:
The keystone has been a bit of a mixed bag this year. To his credit, the difference in Daniel Murphy's defense over the first two months has been night and day. The oddity in that though, is that he routinely makes highlight-reel plays and struggles on the simple ones. My (note: purely conjecture) take from it is that his shortcomings at this point are purely mental; Murphy may be second guessing or trying to anticipate things. He definitely has the athleticism for the position, and will continue to improve as it becomes more instinctive. Plays like this have to be encouraging, and no one can question Murph's work ethic.
Offensively, he's been struggling of late, but he'll likely be able to pick his average back up as the year continues. He's been extremely durable, accounting for 221 of the 241 plate appearances by Mets' second basemen this year, and just under 25% of his hits have gone for extra bases. Backups Justin Turner and Jordany Valdespin collectively have put up Murphian numbers.
The lingering question here is that of power. Murphy has some pop (he actually led the ball club in home runs in 2009 with 12), but has yet to hit a four-bagger this year (he has the most plate appearances in the MLB without a home run in 2012). I'll expect him to hit a few as the year carries on, but if the Mets can get the projected 76 RBI from the position, they'll take it.
THIRD BASE:
David Wright.
But seriously, the Mets dodged a major bullet with Wright's broken pinky in April. He's cooled off significantly in the past few weeks, but is still having a monster season, and could end up near 25 HR / 100 RBI and well over 100 runs scored. That, combined with his batting average and on base percentage, spells an MVP-caliber season from Wright. Production at third base otherwise has been poor, as Ronny Cedeno, Justin Turner, and Vinny Rottino combined to go 4-21 with 3 RBI, 2 runs scored and zero walks.
There's not much else I can say that hasn't been said already. Wright is simply on another level this year, and isn't showing a lot of signs of slowing down. He's an extra base machine (39.7% of his hits have gone for extra bases), he's walking more often than striking out, and his defense has been better than in the past two years. He's basically the R.A. Dickey of hitting this year.
SHORTSTOP:
I'm going to start this section by linking to a blog called Lovable Losers, who did an excellent job comparing the production of the Mets group of shortstops to that of Miami Marlins' shortstop Jose Reyes (advantage: Mets). His statistics don't include games from 6/13 forward, but he provides excellent insight and analysis which is partially responsible for me doing these posts. It's a classic case of small sample size, admittedly, but it goes without saying that were the opposite case true, it would be rubbed in the face of the team relentlessly.
The Shorstops aren't scoring as many runs as Reyes averaged with the Mets, but the dropoff isn't nearly as significant as many expected. The important takeaways this far are that Ruben Tejada is a quality major league hitter (and he's only 22!), and Omar Quintanilla was an excellent signing by Sandy Alderson. It's unlikely that he'll remain on the team when Ronny Cedeno and Ruben Tejada are both healthy, but he will be the everyday shortstop going forward, until Tejada's return.
LEFT FIELD:
Two things stick out here -- Kirk Nieuwenhuis is only 9 plate appearances away from being the "primary" left fielder (with Jason Bay returning to the DL, this will likely occur), and Scott Hairston really should have that distinction. (After Bay's injury last night, Hairston hit a 2-run home run, his 9th of the year, in left field last night. Think about that. Scott Hairston has 120 at bats, and 9 home runs. Until Bay's return, he will likely see every start against left-handed pitching, given his ridiculous .310/.333/.607 line. His hitting against RHP isn't as good, but his .417 slugging percentage is good enough to gamble on a low batting average.
Jason Bay has gone from a disappointment, to a flat-out shame. No matter his poor production (which I partially debunked here), few players have given as much effort as Bay. He has spent his two-plus seasons in Queens with only one task - to endear himself to Mets fans. His injuries have all come as a result of his effort -- two concussions from crashing into walls, and a broken rib from diving for a ball. Say what you will about him, Jason Bay has spent two and a half years literally putting his health and well-being on the line for this team.
Speaking of, it's a damn shame that Mike Baxter will miss so much time. Aside from all the storylines (however compelling they may be, and they certainly are), his bat would pair perfectly with Hairston's in a left field platoon. The Mike Hairston/Scott Baxter (pick one, neither really work) platoon has hit .359/.407/.664 with seven home runs and 27 RBI in only 128 at bats. That's a damn good left fielder. It's so good, in fact, it outpaces Josh Hamilton's 2010 MVP season. It's certainly unfair of me to say that's what would continue to happen, but it's a gamble I would take without question.
CENTER FIELD:
Last winter, the Mets traded embattled centerfielder Angel Pagan to San Francisco for reliever Ramon Ramirez. Andres Torres came along for the ride, but ultimately was a 'pot sweetener', if you will. If Kirk Nieuwenhuis had not missed the majority of 2011 after shoulder surgery, he probably would have gone into this season as the opening day centerfielder. But he did, so he wasn't. Torres, most project, is a solid fourth outfielder, given his fantastic defense and largely average bat. Nieuwenhuis was a hotly-debated prospect coming off a significant injury. At every level of the minors, Captain Kirk has been labeled as a guy who wouldn't succeed. He was generally projected as a platoon guy, given his disparate righty/lefty splits. However, he proceeded to hit, and continue to hit, consistently, at every level. His career minor league slashline is a respectable .280/.354/.464. Notably, it's roughly what he hit at every level -- he didn't necessarily feast on A-level pitching and struggle in the higher levels. His major league slashline this year is .297/.358/.440. He strikes out a lot, but that's followed him at every level.
Looking above, it's clear that he's been at his best in center field. He's been decidedly better than Torres, and is being rewarded by Terry Collins with the majority of playing time . His .196 average against left-handed pitching needs to improve if he's to become a fixture in the Mets' future, but he has shown some encouraging signs so far. That and his impressive defense make him an exciting prospect. Flying under the radar because of the Bryce Harper hype, Nieuwenhuis is having a Rookie-of-the-Year-caliber season this year and is showing no signs of slowing down.
RIGHT FIELD:
Lucas Duda has been as good offensively as he's been poor defensively. He had a bit of a slow start to his season, which comes with precedent (he struggled in 2010, and didn't hit his first home run until his 110th PA of 2011). However, he's slugged .574 over his last 20 games, despite only hitting .250 in that span. While the average may not be ideal, the Mets will gladly take his six home runs and 18 RBI in that span (49HR and 145RBI pace extrapolated over 162 games). The big takeaway, though, is that Duda hit .292 last year. If he can push his average back toward that number, while still maintaining the run production, Lucas can be a monster in right field. He is still raw as a power hitter, but displays raw strength similar to Mike Stanton (Duda's home runs have very similar average distance and speed off the bat to Stanton -- 412.7' and 106.33mph vs. 413.9' and 107mph). It'd be somewhat foolish of me to insist that Lucas Duda is destined to produce what Stanton does, but he's certainly capable of the same contact. And, of course, the better his offense, the less anyone will notice his defense.
PINCH/DESIGNATED HITTER:
Against expectation, the Mets have had excellent production from their pinch hitters and from the DH position. The other side of the coin, though, is that many of the players responsible for this production are now regulars in the line-up due to injury (Scott Hairston) or on the DL (Mike Baxter, Justin Turner). Either way though, Terry Collins has been pushing the proper buttons to get production out of guys you haven't heard of, and that's more or less been the tale of the Mets' season as a whole this year. It says a lot that the Mets could get 100 rbi from pitchers and pinch hitters this year.
So there you have it. Without Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran, with a $52 Million payroll cut that's been ballyhooed and thrown in our faces for months, Despite the struggles of Ike Davis, the absence of Jason Bay, the absence of a running game, and a laundry list of injuries, the Mets have scored 287 runs in their first 64 games, putting them on pace to outscore last year's team by 14 runs. They're 4 games better than last year's team, and are a much, much more fun team to watch. We really don't know what their potential is, or what the future holds, but it's safe to say that the Mets are righting the ship.
Let's go Mets!
No comments:
Post a Comment