So, we're 30 games in. The New York Mets are a surprising 17-13. It hasn't always been pretty (read: Colorado Rockies), but through 30 games they have yet to be under .500, which says a lot about the way this team has battled and persevered. There have been injuries, and there have been struggles, but the Amazin's have won more games than they've lost so far. And really, isn't that all we can hope for?
Through 30 games -- 17-13 record, 118RS, 140RA (13-17 Pythagorean Record), .262/.333/.375
Straight-math projection -- 92-70, 637RS, 756fRA
Reasonable [read: My] projection -- 84-78, 680RS, 680RA
[Fun Fact! The Mets are tied for the second-youngest team in the National League (third in MLB) with an average age of 27.4 years, as per Baseball-Reference]
What stands out at first glance is the -22 run differential. However, a quick glance at the results shows that in three games - 4/18 vs. Atlanta, 4/27 vs. Colorado, and 5/2 vs. Houston, the Mets were outscored by 26 runs. It's not fair nor reasonable to discount these losses (as much as I'd like to), but it at least lends credence to the argument that the differential and resulting Pythagorean record may be misleading. [Not So Fun Fact! -- Chris Schwinden and Manny Acosta combined to allow 20 runs in 10.1 innings of the Colorado and Houston games].
And now, for a position-by-position review of the season so far! (NOTE: I only included the starting rotation and position players for now, I will likely profile the bench and bullpen later this week)
> Pitching Rotation <
1. Johan Santana
Statistics so far -- 6GS, 31IP, 1-2, 2.61ERA, 25H, 34K, 12BB
Straight-math projection -- 33GS, 170.2IP, 6-11, 137.5H, 187K, 66BB
My projection -- 30GS, 175IP, 11-8, 3.00ERA, 165H, 170K, 70BB
So far, Santana has been everything the Mets could have hoped for and so much more. Were it not for his poor (read: pitiful) run support, Santana would likely be 4 or 5 - 1 right now, with his only loss coming in his 1.1IP start in Atlanta. If you remove that one start, his ERA drops to 1.51. Despite diminished velocity (his fastball is averaging 88.4mph vs. 89.6 in 2010), Santana has shown that he can still succeed. He offsets his fastball by a full 10mph with his circle change up (arguably once the best out pitch in baseball), and shows a competitive fire matched by few. His 9.9 K/9IP will likely drop (he has averaged 7.6 with the Mets), but so should his 3.5 BB/9IP. Coming into this season, we viewed anything from Santana as a gift. Going forward, it seems safe to say that Johan is here to say, but don't take it for granted. Santana was one of baseball's elite pitchers for years, and a return to the top, though unlikely, isn't entirely out of the question. After the work he's put in so far, it's hard to doubt what he can accomplish. [Fun fact! Johan Santana's career worst ERA as a starter? 3.33, with Minnesota in 2007.]
2. R.A. Dickey
Statistics so far -- 6GS, 38.1IP, 4-1, 3.76ERA, 32H, 32K, 12BB
Straight-math projection -- 33GS, 211IP, 22-5, 176H, 176K, 77BB
My projection -- 33GS, 210IP, 15-8, 3.33ERA, 190H, 150K, 65BB
At this point, it's fair to say that R.A. Dickey gives the Mets a second Ace in the rotation. He has thrown a Quality Start in 17 of his last 18 appearances (dating back to July 25th last year), and would likely still have that streak going if not for some rain in Atlanta last month. He has a 3.14 ERA and a 1.208WHIP in 64 starts with the Orange and Blue. However, as is the plight of the knuckleballer, he seems to go completely overlooked outside the organization. Dickey has looked unhittable at times, and continues to exhibit almost inexplicable command of his knuckleball, averaging 3.3 BB/9IP (a full walk over his average with the Mets), which should improve as we move into the summer and the weather gets warmer. There's not an awful lot to say about R.A., he's become automatic. Barring catastrophe, it's safe to say that Dickey has been the best of former GM Omar Minaya's free-agent signings. [Fun Fact! In 2011, R.A. Dickey came into spring training on a guaranteed major-league contract for the first time in his career.]
3. Jonathon Niese
Statistics so far -- 6GS, 33.2IP, 2-1, 4.01ERA, 28H, 29K, 13BB
Straight-math projection -- 33GS, 185.1IP, 11-6, 154H, 160K, 72BB
My projection -- 33GS, 190IP, 13-9, 3.60ERA, 170H, 170K, 85BB
Jon Niese was rewarded with a 5-year, $25.5 Million extension last month, with two options that could push the deal to $46 Million. Niese's numbers with the Mets have not been overwhelming (24-24, 4.36ERA), but his 3.36FIP last year suggests a better performance than suggested. Niese's repertoire and make-up suggest that he could become one of the top pitchers in the National League. So far this year, Niese has performed quite well. He has 4 quality starts in 6 appearances in 2012, and continuing the theme, has had his numbers inflated by a single poor start (5/1 in Houston). He's walking more batters so far, but giving up much fewer hits so far, resulting in a 1.218WHIP which is well below his career 1.437 mark. Given that his BABIP is down to .255 this year from a career .324 average, there's a good chance that the WHIP is down to stay. His strikeout numbers are consistent with his career. His ERA will likely drop some as the season progresses. There's a lot to be excited about with Jon Niese, and he's shown so far this year that our expectations may not be too lofty. [Fun Fact! Jon Niese started this season by taking a no-hitter into the 7th inning against Atlanta. He previously threw a 1-hit shutout in 2009 against San Diego.]
4. Mike Pelfrey
Chris Schwinden
Miguel Batista
Statistics so far* --
- Pelfrey -- 3GS, 19.2IP, 0-0, 2.29ERA, 24H, 13K, 4BB
- Schwinden -- 2GS, 8.0IP, 0-1, 11.25ERA, 13H, 1K, 3BB
- Batista** -- 2GS, 9IP, 0-1, 8.00ERA, 16H, 3K, 5BB
*Due to the uncertainty in this rotation spot, I'm not projecting anything
**Only stats from Batista's starts vs. San Francisco and Philadelphia are included here
Mike Pelfrey got off to a Pelfish start against Washington, giving up 3 early runs, but settling down to grind out 5.2 innings. After that, he had two great starts against Philly (6IP, 8H, 1ER) and San Francisco (8IP, 6H, 1ER). Things seemed to be turning around for him after a largely miserable spring training. He and Dan Warthen made some slight tweaks to his delivery, bringing his hands over his head, resulting in more ground balls and fewer walks. A few days after the San Francisco game we heard reports that Pelfrey had some swelling in his elbow, and experienced some discomfort. And now Pelfrey, unfortunately, is out for the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery last week. His first replacement, Chris Schwinden was largely disappointing in his two starts against Colorado and Houston, failing to complete five innings in either start. He has since returned to AAA Buffalo. Miguel Batista pitched well enough Tuesday night (5.1IP, 8H, 2ER) to earn a likely second start, but when that happens is in the air (with the off day Thursday, the Mets can skip this spot in the rotation and have everyone pitch on regular rest). This spot in the rotation is still in flux; most of us are hoping for the healthy return of Chris Young later this month from shoulder surgery. Young will make his first rehab start for Port St. Lucie on Thursday and will throw roughly 75 pitches. If Young can be as effective as he was last April, the Mets will benefit greatly.
5. Dillon Gee
Statistics so far -- 5GS, 32IP, 2-2, 4.50ERA, 35H, 39K, 8BB
Straight-math projection -- 32GS, 205IP, 13-13, 224H, 186K, 51BB
My projection -- 32GS, 195IP, 3.85ERA, 12-10, 180H, 140K, 65BB
And once again, we have a pitcher whose numbers are inflated by one start -- April 23 vs. San Francisco, Gee gave up 12 hits and 7ER in 6.2 innings. That night, his ERA shot from 2.92 to 5.21, from which it's been slowly coming back down. In his two wins, Gee gave up 4ER in 14 innings. In his other 3 starts (2 losses, 1 no-decision), he has surrendered 15ER in 18 innings. Gee's success, as I've written, depends entirely on his ability to throw all of his pitches for strikes. His hit/walk/strikeout rates are much closer to his minor-league numbers than those from last season, which is a positive sign (even if his hits are up, he's allowing roughly the same number of baserunners and striking out more than he did in 2011). It's still early in this season (and in Gee's career) to tell which way Dillon's numbers will trend, but it's hard not to be encouraged by his body of work so far this year. Gee will take the ball Wednesday when the Mets go for the sweep in Philadelphia. [Fun Fact! The Mets have alternated wins and losses in each of Dillon Gee's five starts this year. Tomorrow Gee faces Cliff Lee, who the Mets have beaten once this year]
> The Offense <
Catcher -- Josh Thole (.284/.356/.370)
Statistics so far -- 92PA, 23H, 1HR, 7RBI, 6R, 12K, 9BB (26 games)
Straight-math projection -- 497PA, 124H, 5HR, 38RBI, 32R, 65K, 49BB (140 games)
My projection -- 450PA, 110H, 5HR, 45RBI, 28R, 55K, 40BB (130 games)
Thole's offense is underrated; he's a career .277/.351/.358 hitter. While that doesn't seem exciting, it's nothing to shake a stick at for a catcher. He opened the 2012 season by reaching safely in 18 consecutive games, something no other Mets catcher has ever done. Thole has committed to an OBP-centric approach; he is showing good discipline at the plate and hitting for consistent contact. His defense, while not great, is showing signs of improvement. Catching a knuckleball pitcher will all-but-guarantee him to lead the league in passed balls. 2012 is a big year for Josh, and so far he has stepped up to the challenge. Unfortunately Ty Wigginton concussed Thole the other night, so his solid start is now on solid pause. [Fun Fact! Josh Thole wasn't converted to full-time catcher until 2008]
First Base -- Ike Davis (.167/.227/.265)
Statistics so far -- 110PA, 17H, 3HR, 9RBI, 7R, 8BB, 31K (29 games)
Straight-math projection -- 594PA, 92H, 16HR, 49RBI, 38R, 167K, 43BB (156 games)
My projection -- 575PA, 140H, 20HR, 75RBI, 60R, 140K, 55BB (153 games)
If I had told you in March that Ike Davis would be putting up Pujolsian numbers in 2012, you probably would have laughed at me. Unfortunately, I'd have been right. Pujols' current slash line? .190/.228/.281 in 127 PA's. Unlike Pujols, however, Ike Davis has potential excuses (that, to his credit, he refuses to blame): he missed most of last year with a potentially career-threatening ankle injury, and he showed signs of valley fever in spring training. At some point, Ike will begin to regain his form, and the numbers will improve (since April 26th, Davis' BABIP rose to .333, compared to .206 overall). Fortunately, the Mets have been finding ways to win games without Ike's bat, and the team can only get better when he's swinging. His defense has been solid to great, with two errors balanced against a number of phenomenal plays. [Fun Fact! Ike Davis pitched for the gold-medal winning 2003 USA team in the World Youth Championships]
Second Base -- Daniel Murphy (.308/.349/.367)
Statistics so far -- 129PA, 37H, 0HR, 10RBI, 9R, 15K, 8BB (30 games)
Straight-math projection -- 697PA, 200H, 0HR, 54RBI, 49R, 81K, 43BB (162 games)
My projection -- 640PA, 180H, 8HR, 60RBI, 55R, 85K, 50BB (157 games)
Murphy has done exactly what we've expected of him. He's hit. He's hit from the 2-hole. He's hit from the 3-hole. He's hit from the 5-hole. He's hit with 2 outs, with no outs, with men on and off. Murphy's average has spent all of one day below .279, and his OBP hasn't been below .333 yet. His defense has also been exactly what we've expected. He's committed 5 errors and looked lost at times, and he's made some jaw-dropping plays at others. For what it's worth, he has the same number of errors as Dan Uggla in Atlanta. Going forward, if the Mets can get Uggla-or-better defense out of Murphy and an average around .310, I'd consider it a victory. [Fun Fact! Dan Murphy is the only Met to appear in every game so far, and is in the starting lineup for Game 31]
Third Base -- David Wright (.375/.479/.552)
Statistics so far -- 117PA, 36H, 3HR, 17RBI, 19R, 17K, 20BB (29 games)
Straight-math projection -- 632PA, 194H, 16HR, 92RBI, 103R, 92K, 108BB (146 games)
My projection -- 660PA, 180H, 26HR, 103RBI, 97R, 120K, 95BB (155 games)
What can't be said about David Wright? Were it not for Matt Kemp in Los Angeles, David Wright would have made a great case for NL Player of the Month in April. Wright is showing quickly that he can still be the MVP-quality player he was earlier in his career. Even with a broken pinky, David has played almost every day, and has shown that there are no ill effects (he notably hit a home run on the first pitch he saw after missing 3 games). He is also showing rare discipline; his 20 walks in 117 plate appearances far outpaces his 121 walks in 1117 plate appearances the past two years. He's striking out in only 14.5% of plate appearances compared to 23.1% the past two years. Wright's play in 2012 is not only encouraging, it's flat-out fun to watch. I hate the concept of 'clutch', but David Wright has been damn clutch this year. [Fun Fact! With Mike Pelfrey's injury, there's no one on this team who was around for Wright's first four years with the Mets. The next longest-tenured Met is Johan Santana]
Shortstop -- Ruben Tejada (.305/.362/.400)
Statistics so far -- 117PA, 32H, 0HR, 8RBI, 14R, 24K, 8BB (27 games)
Straight-math projection -- 632PA, 173H, 0HR, 43RBI, 76R, 130K, 43BB (146 games)
My projection -- 600PA, 145H, 2HR, 40RBI, 85R, 125K, 55BB (140 games)
Prior to landing on the DL this week, Ruben Tejada was off to a solid start, hitting .305 in his first 27 games replacing Reyes. Since everyone's comparing, here's Reyes' slashline so far - (.226/.308/.322). Tejada has been spraying line drives (Ruben's 10 doubles are tied for 3rd-best in the National League). He has played well defensively, and if the shadow of Reyes does loom over him, he isn't showing it. Ruben is the youngest active Met but has shown he belongs in Queens. His numbers shouldn't decrease too much; while his average may drop, his walk rate will likely increase. Hopefully he isn't out for too long. Tejada is showing a lot of potential this year, and the outlook on this kid is seeming brighter each day. [Fun Fact! At 22 years old, Ruben Tejada would have been the youngest player in AA Binghamton last season]
Because of the outfield situation going forward (Bay/Torres/Duda/Nieuwenhuis and 3 spots), I don't want to make projections for them going forward, as it would be too difficult to accurately project playing time.
Left Field -- Jason Bay (.240/.316/.460)
Statistics so far -- 57PA, 12H, 3HR, 5RBI, 8R, 17K, 6BB (15 games)
Straight-math projection -- 308PA, 65H, 16HR, 27RBI, 43R, 92K, 32BB (81 games)
In short sample, Bay has still been an enigma this year. His .460 SLG is a full 69 points above his average with the Mets. Believe it or not, he was off to a much better start this year, statistically, compared to 2010/11. Unfortunately a broken rib has sent him to the DL with no return currently in sight. For all of Jason Bay's struggles, he's never given up. He's been a consummate professional through it all, and has always given his all. Bay represents an excellent clubhouse guy, but unfortunately hasn't been the player Omar Minaya gave $66 Million to. I can't/won't/don't hate Bay because he's a fighter, and seems like a genuinely good teammate and worker, but the odds of him proving value relative to his salary is between slim and nil. Depending on the performance of the other outfielders, Bay could be facing a platoon, if not a full demotion, at some point this season. [Fun Fact! Jason Bay is one of three Canadians with 200 career MLB home runs.]
Left/Center Field -- Kirk Nieuwenhuis (.310/.381/.440)
Statistics so far -- 114PA, 31H, 2HR, 10RBI, 15R, 33K, 11BB (29 games)
Straight-math projection -- 616PA, 167H, 11HR, 54RBI, 81R, 178K, 49BB (156 games)
Andres Torres' DL trip after opening day meant Nieuwenhuis would get to make his MLB debut in early April, less than a year after shoulder surgery. Since he was drafted in the third round of the 2008 draft, scouts have questioned his ability to hit at each level, and he has consistently proven them wrong. So far, he is hitting only .207 against lefties, and he strikes out at a near-alarming rate (28.9% of his PA's). What will most-likely determine his future this season is how he adjusts to those two statistics. He has also made a number of outstanding catches in center field, playing the outfield like a hard-hitting NFL safety. He's proven he belongs in the majors, and has shown consistency at both the top and bottom of the order. Bay's return could present a difficult situation for Terry Collins given his play. [Fun Fact! Kirk Nieuwenhuis went to Asuza Pacific University because they were willing to let him play football as well as baseball]
Center Field -- Andres Torres (.313/.405/.344)
Statistics so far -- 37PA, 10H, 0HR, 6RBI, 6R, 5K, 5BB (9 games)
Straight-math projection -- 200PA, 54H, 0HR, 32RBI, 32R, 27K, 27BB (49 games)
Andres Torres went 0-2 with a walk and a run scored on opening day, and left in the top of the 7th inning after aggravating his calf. He rejoined the team last week in Houston, and has proceeded to play an excellent center field to accompany his good performance at the plate. The word on Torres was that he is an excellent defender, and a bit of a mystery at the plate. Would the Mets get 2010 Torres, or 2011 Torres? So far, the change of scenery has benefitted him quite well as he has shown a great eye at the plate, and a smooth stroke. He has yet to hit a home run, but has shown some power in the gaps to go along with some good speed. Torres will likely become a fixture at the top of the lineup with his discipline and baserunning ability, which allows Tejada or Murphy, both quality hitters, to slot lower in the lineup. [Fun Fact! Andres Torres was actually born in nearby Paterson, New Jersey. His family moved to Puerto Rico a year later.]
Right Field -- Lucas Duda (.247/.336/.398)
Statistics so far -- 107PA, 23H, 4HR, 15RBI, 11R, 27K, 12BB (28 games)
Straight-math projection -- 578PA, 124H, 22HR, 81RBI, 59R, 146K, 65BB (151 games)
Lucas Duda has hit pretty well so far this year. After a pretty quiet first three weeks, he's hit .317/.404/.415 since the second game of the 4/23 doubleheader against San Francisco. He has four home runs to this point, and the projected 22 would certainly be respectable in his first full season as the Mets' right fielder. That said, anyone who's seen Duda connect knows that he has the potential for so much more. As for his defense, Duda has been alright. He doesn't always get good jumps, but that will improve as he gets more experience. He's been working with Outfield coach Tom Goodwin to improve his positioning and reads. Duda's play has largely been to minimize big mistakes. It's a work in progress, but just comparing last summer to now, and the improvement has been significant. His future could be in left field, but in the mean time, he's playing a decent right field and starting to hit like we've hoped he would. [Fun Fact! Lucas Duda hit home runs in five consecutive games for the AAA Buffalo Bisons in 2010, tying a franchise record.]
No comments:
Post a Comment