Tuesday, June 19, 2012

In which I dissect the bullpen

As you can see here, the Mets' bullpen ranks 30th out of 30 teams in ERA. They're tied with Houston for 29th with a .275 BAA. They rank 22nd with 85 walks surrendered. Fortunately, they also rank 22nd in innings pitched, so their damage has been somewhat limited.

I would assert though, that "the Mets have the worst bullpen in baseball" does not necessarily hold, however; as the Mets may not currently hold the worst collection of relievers.

Exhibit A: Manny Acosta
Manny Acosta had a high ERA. Higher than anyone on the Mets not named Chris Schwinden.  Acosta, however, pitched 13.1 more innings than Schwinden before getting axed.


Manny Acosta allowed 33 runs (29 earned) in his 22 innings, earning him an 11.86 ERA. Only two pitchers on the Mets have allowed more - Dillon Gee (45, 41 earned) and Jonathon Niese (35, 32 earned). They're both starting pitchers, however. Dillon Gee has pitched 61.1 more innings than Acosta, Niese 53.1. 


Thanks to ESPN, we can see rather quickly that the the Met 'pen has allowed 113 earned runs in 188.1 innings, giving them 5.40 ERA. Quick subtraction shows us that, minus Acosta, those numbers shrink to 84 ER in 166.1 innings. Their ERA? 4.55, nearly a full run less. They move all the way up to 29th! My argument is, albeit weakly, already proven!

But that's a little too simplistic. Let's see how the current bullpen measures up. Currently*, the Mets carry Frank Francisco, Jon Rauch, Bobby Parnell, Tim Byrdak, Miguel Batista**, Jeremy Hefner**, and Elvin Ramirez as relievers. Let's take a look at their collective performance in 2012.

* Ramon Ramirez is being included as his absence is health-related, unlike the other excluded relievers who were either optioned or designated for assignment.

** Only relief statistics are included here.

[Click to embiggen]

So, they have a 4.41 ERA. Not great, but quite close to last year's 4.33. Some things have improved -- They're getting more strikeouts (8.41 K/9, vs. 7.91).

Two important takeaways from this:

1. They're improving. The worst two relievers, Acosta and DJ Carrasco, are no longer with the ball club. Francisco's ERA has dropped from 8.59 to 5.00 since May 14th.

2. Their "damage" will be limited. Dillon Gee's and Jonathon Niese's improvement over the past month, and Chris Young's stability in Mike Pelfrey's rotation slot will allow the Mets' to rely less on the 'pen, and the less they're used the better they will be.


And if all else fails, the Mets have built up some reinforcements in the minors. Pedro Beato and Jenrry Mejia will both be available before the All-Star Break. Given how poorly the bullpen has performed to this point, the future is much, much brighter than we all once thought.

No comments:

Post a Comment