Optimism for Johan Santana

2012 proved to be quite the momentous year for Johan Santana. After missing the entire 2011 season following major shoulder surgery, the 33-year-old Venezuelan silenced critics with 5 shutout innings (and a no-decision) on Opening Day. While it wasn't a dominant start, El Gocho showed us that his stuff is effective at any velocity (his fastball in 2012 averaged 88.4mph, down from 89.6 in 2010) as he struck out five batters and escaped a bases-loaded, no-out jam in the fifth inning. 

In fact, Santana looked every bit the part of the ace the Mets lacked, averaging better than 6 innings per start and a 2.39 ERA through his first eleven starts. His eleventh start last year was especially significant. I don't want to be the one to tell you what happened, so I'll let Gary Cohen tell you here.

What immediately followed is, well, not so good. What you often hear is that Santana, well, stunk after that night. In the 10 starts that followed, Santana averaged under 5 innings / start and posted a Oliver Perez-esque 8.27 ERA. Because of this, the common theme is that Santana is now a question mark for 2013. But is he?

Let's look at some numbers [Note: "Pre" references starts up to and including June 1st, "Post" is everything after]

K/9, BB/9, K/BB, BABIP

Pre: 9.0, 2.78, 3.24, .259

Post: 7.90, 3.31, 2.39, .357

The biggest thing to note is that Santana's walk rate jumped 19%. The strikeout rate dropped 12% as well, but the 7.90/9 exactly matches his rate in 2009/10, so it isn't exactly a red flag. The most significant thing to note is the major increase in BABIP. Some of that is indicative of his struggles, but some does indicate some unfortunate regression (his career BABIP is .276). The numbers here do indeed indicate a major regression in his performance, but blanket statements here may be misleading. 

What is seemingly overlooked in analyzing his decline is the major ankle injury Santana suffered against Chicago on July 6th. I posit that this be used as the 'turning point' in Santana's season, and here's why (on a start by start basis):

June 8th, @NYY: 5IP, 7H, 6ER, 1BB, 5K

Santana certainly struggled against the Yankees here, but it was almost a perfect storm of factors that led to this. First, Johan was given an extra 2 days of rest which some argue threw off his schedule. Second (and perhaps, more importantly): Santana, who has always been a fly-ball pitcher (his career Ground-Ball rate is only 37.2%), started a game in a notorious home-run hitters' park, against a notorious home-run hitting team (the Yankees hit 245 home runs, breaking their own franchise record and totaling the 7th most all-time). Of the 10 balls put in play against Santana that day, 6 were hit in the air. 4 of them left the park.

June 14th, @TBR: 5IP, 6H, 4ER, 4BB, 6K

A sloppy start for Santana, in which he allowed 10 baserunners in 5 innings. That said, he did keep the ball in the yard. He did allow 1 fewer hit, and struck out an additional batter, but he walked three more than in his previous start. In all, an improvement. This wasn't a 'quality' start by any means, it is at least passable.

June 19, vs. BAL: 6IP, 4H, 0ER, 2BB, 5K

This was Santana's first 'good' start after the no hitter, and it came against a quality Balitmore Orioles team. He seemed to shake off his funk here, and it showed in his next few starts. 

June 25, @CHC: 6IP, 5H, 2ER, 3BB, 6K

Santana has thrown back-to-back quality starts, and seems to be getting back to where he was. His control was a bit shaky, giving up three walks, but he continued to have a good strikeout rate (22K in 22IP in these four starts, matching his pre-no-hitter rate), but the walks were definitely up (10BB/22IP). 

June 30, @LAD: 8IP, 3H, 0ER, 2BB, 3K

Not many strikeouts in this start, but very effective nonetheless. In fairness, it was against a depleted Dodgers lineup, but for Santana to go beyond 6 innings for the first time in a month was a good step forward. He was also much more efficient in this start, averaging just over 13 pitches per inning. He may not have been dominant (if you consider the low strikeout total) but he was about as close as it gets.

At this point, we can see that Santana was not nearly as bad after the no-hitter as we get told, he was still pretty good. His ERA in these five starts was 3.60 (12ER/30IP). Not great, but certainly respectable for someone supposedly 'worn out' following a 134-pitch no hitter following anterior capsule surgery (if you remove the start against the Yankees, his ERA in the other four was a paltry 2.19). His In his next start (vs. CHC), he started out fine (2ER in the first 4 innings, before having his ankle injured covering first base on a Reed Johnson groundout). After that moment, things turned for the much-much-much worse. In the 15 innings Santana would pitch following the injury, he gave up a total of 31(!) earned runs. 

Now, this is no guarantee that Santana will be in vintage form next year. What it is, however, is a theory - one at least as credible as any other - that Santana's ankle was the reason behind his decline. His shoulder, in the meantime, seemingly showed no long-term fatigue. Johan Santana can be fairly considered a variable going into next season. But he's a gamer, and has shown that he can work effectively with what he has. And many of us said these things a year ago. After seeing Santana pitch opening day this year, I'm willing to put my money on him going forward.

Why the Pessimism Surrounding Ike Davis?

After an inconsistent 2012, many consider Ike Davis' future to be far cloudier than they did a year ago. Davis followed an impressive rookie campaign (.264/.351/.440, 19HR) with an excellent start to his sophomore season (.302/.383/.543, 7HR) that was cut short after only 149 plate appearances due to a freak ankle injury suffered on a pop up in Colorado.

After missing the last 126 games in 2011, Davis' health was further thrown into question after rumors surfaced of a valley fever infection. Ike (and Mets brass) insisted this would be a non-factor, and he finished spring training on a high note, homering in the Mets' final three spring games. 

Things would turn quickly south, however. It wasn't until his sixth game that Ike got his first hit of the season, and things did not pick up much after that. He showed flashes of his ability at times (he homered in 3 out of 4 games April 14th-18th), but largely seemed to be struggling. Those struggles were attributed to a combination of rust, his health, and his mental fortitude. Everything came to a head in early June, when the decision was made not to demote Davis; Sandy Alderson claimed that the first baseman would better benefit from hitting (or trying to) against Major League pitching. That was June 8th of this year. Perhaps coincidentally, things looked up for Ike Davis that very day.

Ike Davis on June 8th: .158/.234/.273, 5 HR

Ike Davis since June 8th: .263/.345/.560, 27 HR

Not only was Davis contributing again offensively, he became the player everyone hoped for. From June 8th to the end of the season, Davis' .905 OPS would lead all National League first basemen. His 32 home runs in 2012 were one shy of Adam LaRoche (who led NL first basemen in HR), and LaRoche had 63 more plate appearances. His 32 were tied for fourth overall in the NL (with Alfonso Soriano and Carlos Beltran), and his 18.25 PA/HR was second in the National League, trailing only Ryan Braun. So the question here is, why so much uncertainty going forward?

1. Ike Davis has disparate platoon splits.

In 2012, Davis did show some bad splits, posting a .560 OPS vs. left-handed pitching compared to an .868 OPS vs. righties. His overall line vs. LHPs was .174/.225/.335, which is certainly nothing to hang his hat on. That said, that line on May 24th was .184/.200/.327. His OPS did ultimately improve, though his average dropped 10 points. Why bring this up? Well, looking back to the lines posted above, it shows that Davis managed a .905 OPS despite hitting so disparately. Frankly, were Davis able to do that over a full season, I doubt any Mets fans would complain (his turnaround stats, projected over all 584 of his 2012 PA's, would yield 41 home runs and 30 doubles against a respectable .263 batting average.

Further, Ike suffered from an abyssmal .193 BABIP against lefties (compared to a slightly-below-average .271 BABIP against righties), which suggests some room for progression to the mean, given his career mark of .277.  Also, worth noting, is Ike's .805 OPS against left-handed pitching as a rookie. Granted, this mark came against a rather high .388 BABIP (suggesting regression). Putting these two pieces of evidence together suggests Ike's true abilities lay somewhere in the middle. If he could manage an OPS between .650 and .700 against left-handed pitching, along with his consistent ability to hit right-handed pitching, Davis could develop into an elite first baseman in a league lacking them after both Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder signed with American League ballclubs.

2. Ike Davis struggles against breaking pitches.

Again, this carries some credence, given that Ike saw curveballs or sliders on nearly 1/3 (31.6%) of all pitches he saw this year. Once again, I humbly (okay, okay. I do it smugly) point to the numbers above. I think that, while he may not fare exceptionally against them, he at least regained his ability to lay off breaking pitches out of the zone (his strikeout rate dropped a full 7% after June 8th).

In short, it seems foolish, to me, that people are now so unsure about the abilities of Ike Davis. The odds that his struggles could be attributed to being away from baseball for close to 10 months (as opposed to his abilities being 'exposed') seem likely. His distinct, and almost instant, change in June this year suggests that something specifically clicked again for him. His game in 2012 was not perfect, but the numbers suggest that there's a lot more positive to be taken than negative. Davis has shown the ability, in three separate, consecutive years, to be a top-notch power bat at first base. Don't insist on letting two months sway you, when the majority of evidence is stacked against them.

The 2012 Major League All-Mediocre Team!

In the spirit of awards season, I figured I should take a little time to recognize some of the outstanding performances of the 2012 major league season. But, everyone else has been doing that for months. So I'm gonna do something I find a little more fun. Which gives us:

The 2012 (First Annual!) Major League Baseball All-Mediocre Team!

In the interest of thoroughness, I've assembled not only a starting lineup, but a full 25-man roster!

First, some fun (and surprising) facts about this year's team:
- The 2012 MLB A-M Team earned $116,129,000 in payroll, which would represent the ninth-highest payroll in the MLB (6th in the AL, 4th in the NL).
- The team hit a combined 217 home runs in 2012, which would be second, behind only the New York Yankees.
- Using only RBI and ER as metrics, the all-mediocre team scored a whopping 846 runs, and allowed only 615, which would rank 1st and T-11th, respectively.
- 14 of the 25 players are in the American League (8 batters, 6 pitchers) compared to 11 in the National League (5 batters, 6 pitchers). 7/8 starting position players are from the AL.
- 17 teams are represented on this list. Atlanta, Chicago (AL), and Tampa Bay each have three representatives.

The rules for this were agreed upon by our all-star panel of judge, and are as follows:

Batters -

1. Using OPS+ measurements on Baseball-Reference, I've selected the players closest to an even 100, representing the league average.

2. Players listed must have qualified for the Major League batting title*, and can only be represented in their primary position (Hanley Ramirez, for example, would thus be ineligible at Shortstop this season).

*Based on the taxing nature of the position, the Plate Appearance minimum for Catchers is 400, instead of the necessary 502.

3. Because we're shooting for mediocrity here, those below 100 are selected over those equally above 100 (i.e. someone with a 98 OPS+ would be selected over someone with a 102 OPS+).

4. Also in the spirit of mediocrity, candidates who were closest to 100 overall were selected (i.e. someone with a 103 OPS+ would be selected over someone with a 96 OPS+).

5. In the event of a tie, salary was the next tiebreaker. What better gauge of mediocrity than the underwhelming bang for your buck?

----------------------------------------------------------------------

Catcher - Alex Avila, Detroit Tigers - 100 OPS+
$510,000
.243/.352/.384
9HR, 48RBI

First Base - Carlos Pena, Tampa Bay Rays - 94 OPS+
$7,250,000
.197/.330/.354
19HR, 61RBI

Second Base - Marco Scutaro, Colorado Rockies and San Francisco Giants - 99 OPS+
$6,000,000
.306/.348/.405
3HR, 44RBI

Third Base - Kevin Youkilis, Boston Red Sox and Chicago White Sox - 99 OPS+
$12,250,000
.235/.336/.409
19HR, 60RBI

Shortstop - Alcides Escobar, Kansas City Royals - 98 OPS+
$1,000,000
.293/.331/.390
5HR, 52RBI

Left Field - Desmond Jennings, Tampa Bay Rays - 97 OPS+
$487,000
.246/.314/.388
13HR, 47RBI

Center Field - Michael Bourn, Atlanta Braves - 99 OPS+
$6,850,000
.274/.348/.391
9HR, 57RBI

Right Field - Nelson Cruz, Texas Rangers - 101 OPS+
$5,000,000
.260/.319/.460
24HR, 90RBI

Bench:

Dan Uggla, 2B Atlanta Braves -- 98 OPS+
$13,000,000
.220/.348/.384
19HR, 78RBI

Jimmy Rollins, SS Philadelphia Phillies -- 98 OPS+
$11,000,000
.250/.316/.427
23HR, 68RBI

Hunter Pence, RF Philadelphia Phillies and San Francisco Giants -- 103 OPS+
$10,400,000
.253/.319/.425
24HR, 104RBI

Dayan Viciedo, LF/IF Chicago White Sox -- 96 OPS+
$2,500,000
.255/.300/.444
25HR, 78RBI

Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Boston Red Sox -- 95 OPS+
$2,500,000
.222/.288/.454

25HR, 59RBI

Pitchers -

1. Using ERA+ measurements on Baseball-Reference, I've selected the players closest to an even 100, representing the league average

2. Starting pitchers must have qualified for the ERA title; Relief Pitchers must have pitched a minimum of 50 innings.

3 - 5 are the same as above, substituting ERA+ for OPS+ as necessary.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

Starting Rotation:

Matt Moore, Tampa Bay Rays -- 100 ERA+
$1,000,000
177.1 IP, 3.81 ERA
2.16 K/BB, 1.348 WHIP

C.J. Wilson, Los Angeles Angels -- 99 ERA+
$10,000,000
202.1 IP, 3.83 ERA
1.90 K/BB, 1.344 WHIP

Phil Hughes, New York Yankees -- 99 ERA+
$3,200,000
191.1 IP, 4.23 ERA
3.59 K/BB, 1.265 WHIP

Gavin Floyd, Chicago White Sox -- 101 ERA+
$7,000,000
168 IP, 4.29 ERA
2.29 K/BB, 1.363 WHIP

Edwin Jackson, Washington Nationals -- 98 ERA+
$11,000,000
189.2 IP, 4.03 ERA
2.90 K/BB, 1.218 WHIP

Bullpen:

Ryan Webb, Miami Marlins -- 99 ERA+
$481,000
60.1 IP, 4.03 ERA
2.20 K/BB, 1.525 WHIP

Jamey Wright, Los Angeles Dodgers -- 102 ERA+
$900,000
67.2 IP, 3.72 ERA
1.80 K/BB, 1.507 WHIP

Vicente Padilla, Boston Red Sox -- 97 ERA+
$1,500,000
50 IP, 4.50 ERA
3.40 K/BB, 1.480 WHIP

Brad Brach, San Diego Padres -- 97 ERA+
$480,000
66.2 IP, 3.78 ERA
2.27 K/BB, 1.245 WHIP

Cristhian Martinez, Atlanta Braves -- 103 ERA+
$491,000
73.2 IP, 3.91 ERA
3.42 K/BB, 1.344 WHIP

Chris Resop, Pittsburgh Pirates -- 96 ERA+
$850,000
73.2 IP, 3.91 ERA
1.92 K/BB, 1.425 WHIP

Steve Delabar, Seattle Mariners and Toronto Blue Jays -- 105 ERA+
$481,000
66 IP, 3.82 ERA
3.54 K/BB, 1.091 WHIP

Should the Mets pay Scott Hairston? I say yes.

Scott Hairston had a career year in 2012, hitting 20 home runs and posting a career-high .803 OPS+. Conservatively speaking, he outplayed his $1.1 Million salary. Hairston's play will certainly earn him a notable raise this offseason, with many saying he's priced himself out of the Mets' wallet. For that reason, this post may be a bit naive/unnecessary. However, let's consider for a bit that Hairston were willing to sign a team-friendly contract.

Hairston hit .263/.299/.504 this year, which is an improvement to his career marks (.247/.302/.449), but not so much so as to suggest anomaly. He hit .286/.317/.550 against left-handed pitching, again not far from his .276/.325/.500 career marks. His .229/.288/.416 line against right-handed pitching suggests that he would be an ideal fit in a platoon, which could be a deterrent. The Mets, however, have a plethora of Lefty-batting outfielders with large platoon splits, all of whom are under team control and making Major-League minimum salaries. 2013 will likely feature an outfield starting Lucas Duda, Kirk Nieuwenhuis, and Mike Baxter against right-handed pitching. Jason Bay will likely patrol Left Field against lefty-pitching. Having a veteran like Hairston to platoon with Kirk and/or Baxter would significantly improve the outfield offense, which has been targeted as a significant need this offseason.

For simplicity's sake, let's consider a strict platoon of Mike Baxter and Scott Hairston in right field next year. In 2012, Mikescott Baxston hit .287/.335/.504 in 388 plate appearances. Compare that to:

Nick Swisher - .272/.364/.473, 624 PA ($10,250,000)
Carlos Beltran - .269/.346/.495, 619 PA ($13,000,000)
Jayson Werth - .300/.387/.440, 344 PA ($13,000,000)
Josh Hamilton - .285/.354/.577, 636 PA ($13,750,000)

Baxston likely won't turn any heads, nor would he be lauded as a major victory for Sandy Alderson. However, it's a quiet move that could shore up a position of need, and do so relatively inexpensively. Compared to the short list above, would offering Hairston a 2-year, $9M contract not be unreasonable?

The Quest For .500!

As of me writing this, the Mets are 50-53 on the curtails of a miserable 3-13 performance since the All-Star Break. They've scored 467 runs (putting them on pace for 734, or 16 runs more than in 2011)  and have allowed 476 runs (putting them on pace for 748, or 6 more than in 2011). They were 52-51 at this point last year, in the midst of a 5-game winning streak that started in game 102 (This year's Mets are in the midst of a current 2-game win streak that started in game 102).

Enough comparisons to last year. What I'm looking to do right now, is try and project where the Amazin's end up. Using Math!

The Mets have 59 games left. The winning percentage of their opponents in those remaining games is .491, which is slightly above the Mets' current percentage of .485. This is a little misleading, however.  28 of their remaining games come against teams over .500, who share a winning percentage of .568. The other 31 come against teams below .500, who share a winning percentage of .414.

Those are magic numbers: 31 and 28. A 31-28 record down the stretch yields an 81-81 record, which the Mets haven't achieved since 2008, when they went 89-73.

It can't be that simple though. Certainly, the Mets aren't going to win every game against the inferior competition, and lose every game against a winning team. So how likely *is* 31-28 from here?

Thanks to Baseball-Reference, I was able to get a breakdown of not only the Mets remaining schedule, but the number of remaining games against each, and how they've fared so far against each team. I broke all this down into this table:

Looking at this, we see that this (simple) model projects the Mets to go .... 30.638-28.362 from here! In a sense, it's fair and reasonable to say the Mets will finish very close to .500 this year. But that's also a rather simple way to look at it.

In my opinion, 31-28 represents neither the best nor worst case scenario, but a fair middle ground. Arguments can be made in either direction.


THREE REASONS WHY THE METS WILL FINISH ABOVE .500

(1)
The Phillies have traded away Shane Victorino and Hunter Pence.
The Marlins have traded away Gaby Sanchez, Omar Infante, Hanley Ramirez, and Anibal Sanchez (among others).

These two teams have arguably gotten worse since they've last played the Mets, and they represent 18 of the Mets remaining games. Based solely on their current head-to-head records, they project to go 12-6 in those games. Given the above changes, outpacing that projection isn't unreasonable.

(2)
The model above suggests that, because the Mets were swept in Houston, they won't win another game. I'm not a betting man, but if I were I would think it fair to say the Mets will take at least one of three.

Of the sub-.500 teams the Mets play going forward, only one (Miami) is within eight games of .500. After that, it's Milwaukee (-10), Philadelphia (-12), San Diego (-16), Colorado (-26), and Houston (-34). All of these teams have significant issues, and represent a prime opportunity for the Mets to fatten their record.

They also have left room for improvement against some opponents. The Mets have gone 4-17 against Cincinnati and Washington this year, and with 9 games remaining can look to improve upon that. If they even go a paltry 3-6 in those games, it represents a net gain against the projection.

(3)
The opportunity for internal improvement. It's no secret that the bullpen has been, well, terrible. But there are some bright spots - Josh Edgin has pitched great, giving up only a single earned run since his ML debut, and sporting a gaudy 16.2 K/9. Jon Rauch has quietly been solid, with a 1.32 ERA in his last 18 appearances (2ER/13.2IP). He struggled between mid-May and early June, but he has a 2.17 ERA otherwise to go along with his career best 1.062 WHIP.

On offense, Ike Davis' consistent resurgence has turned first base into a position of strength. His 20 home runs lead all players from the position, and his ability to hit somewhat competently against lefties has allowed additional flexibility for Terry Collins. Similarly, the improvement of players like Andres Torres and the out-of-nowhere-mashing of Scott Hairston both bode well for this team.

THREE REASONS WHY THE METS WON'T FINISH ABOVE .500


(1)
Their pitching. The bullpen has struggled. And struggled. And struggled. They could improve as the season wears on, but it's unlikely that they will make significant strides. The starting pitching has also been shaky lately, and plenty of uncertainty surrounds the vacancies left by Dillon Gee and Johan Santana. Can the Mets win with Hefner filling in? Is Matt Harvey as good as he looked? The jury is out right now, but these are questions that need answers soon, before it's too late.

(2)
The rest of the offense. The Mets are getting almost nothing from their outfield, outside Scott Hairston. Jason Bay is still lost, Andres Torres' OBP is high, but his .320 SLG undoes the bulk of that. Mike Baxter's return offers a glimmer of hope and solidifies a potential platoon in left field, but that leaves the Mets with, at most, 1.5 effective outfielders at any moment. The infield (Davis/Murphy/Wright/Tejada) has been collectively solid of late, but it's going to continue to hurt the Mets when 5-9 in the batting order are dragging.

(3)
Emotions. The Mets' last homestand saw the wheels fall off the wagon, and then the wagon combusted, and then the ashes threw a hanging curveball to Matt Kemp. The Mets have been, by most admissions, playing better than their talent would suggest. When their long-touted locker room chemistry began to lull, things just got worse. Pedro Beato's demotion is a step in the right direction, but after three terrible weeks it leaves one to wonder if they can regain the feel-good vibe from the spring.




The Mets had a .544 winning percentage in April, May, and June. They're .292 going into their last game in July. The level of competition going forward suggests that they could go either way. If they play the way they have so far this season, .500 is attainable. If they catch a few breaks, they could end up better than that. 

A look at Wins Above Replacement: Ruben Tejada

When Ruben Tejada has been healthy, he's been a very good shortstop. So good, in fact, that Mets fans have begun to forget about the guy who used to play shortstop for them. See? Forgotten.

The old guy is currently hitting .264/.336/.378, with 22 RBI and 27 XBH in 384 PA's. 

The new guy is currently hitting .325/.381/.405 with 12 RBI and 13 XBH in 182 PA's. 

Though a smaller sample size, it's not very tough to see who's doing better at the plate. But let's make two further comparisons:

FIRST: How does Tejada at 22 compare to the old guy at 22?

Well, he won't play more games, because Jose (Who-se?) Reyes appeared in a career high 161 at age 22. In those games (733 PA's), he hit .273/.300/.386, with 58 RBI and 60(!) stolen bases. It is important to note here that many SABRmetricians discount the value of steals (an opinion I share. Argument: The Mets stole 130 bases last year, and scored 718 runs. They're on pace to steal 85 this year, and score 742, their highest total in five years). Anyway...

The people who spend their time collecting all these stats so people like me can whine about them have come up with a stat called Wins Above Replacement (WAR), which basically sums up the overall value of a player. The nice thing about it is that you can use it to compare seasons and careers of multiple players; its formulated to be consistent and comparable from year to year, and, to a limited extent, from position to position (If someone is a 5 WAR second baseman, it doesn't really hold that they would be a 5 WAR center fielder. Also, it isn't necessarily fair to say that a 4.0 WAR first baseman is a better or more valuable player than a 3.7 WAR shortstop, as first base is the far-easier defensive position). Also, it's important to note that WAR is a "counting" statistic; it doesn't fluctuate like batting average. It accumulates or subtracts based on a player's performance relative to "replacement-level". In other words, for a player's WAR to decrease, they would have to play worse than replacement-level.

There are two primary sources for WAR: Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference. Each site calculates it somewhat differently, so someone's WAR on Fangraphs (denoted fWAR) wouldn't compare directly to someone's WAR on Baseball-Reference (denoted rWAR). You can find more information on how they're calculated on their respective sites.

Jose Reyes' age 22 season earned him a 1.4 rWAR and a 2.3 fWAR. Ruben Tejada has a 1.6 rWAR and a 1.3 fWAR this year. According to Baseball-Reference, Tejada's play in 41 games alone contributes more value to the Mets' success this year than Jose Reyes' play in 161 games did in 2005! On Fangraphs it isn't yet, but Tejada is certainly on the pace to top Reyes' season. To provide a closer comparison, however, I'm going to modify these a little bit. I'm going to call this "Marginal WAR", or MfWAR and MrWAR. I'm going to do this by dividing their WAR by plate appearances, to calculate how valuable each player is on a direct proportion to playing time.

Jose Reyes:

MfWAR: 0.00314

MrWAR: 0.00191

Ruben Tejada:

MfWAR: 0.00714

MrWAR: 0.00879

Depending on which site you use, Ruben Tejada has been between 2.27 and 4.6 times more valuable than Jose Reyes on a per-plate-appearance level (NOTE: This does not mean that each Ruben Tejada plate appearance is so much more valuable than one from Reyes. I chose to use PA's as I feel they best represent a player's portion of offensive and defensive playing time.) Were Tejada to play at this level for an entire season, it would translate to roughly 5.5-6.0 rWAR (Baseball-Reference defines 6.0+ as "all-star"). Is this sufficient to say that Tejada is an all-star caliber short stop? Certainly not in itself, though it does provide a good context about his level of play. 

To consider his "all-star" eligibility, we should look at how he stacks up to other major league shortstops. Which brings us to...

SECOND: How does Tejada compare to other MLB Shortstops in 2012?

Ruben Tejada is currently the second-youngest everyday shortstop in the major leagues (He is older than Starlin Castro of the Cubs. He is also older than Atlanta's opening-day shortstop, Tyler Pastornicky, who last appeared as a pinch runner on May 30th and has been replaced by Andrelton Simmons.) Tejada presently ranks 14th in fWAR (tied with Jose Reyes and Alcides Escobar) and 9th in fWAR (tied with Zack Cosart) in the MLB. (Fun Fact: both sites rank him above Derek Jeter!). However, in both cases, the bulk of players above him have played significantly more. So, for fun's sake, let's break down the top 15 players on each scale by Marginal WAR:

(Click to enlarge)

[NOTE: National League shortstops are in bold, American League shortstops are italicized]

We can draw two quick and dirty conclusions from this chart:

1. The two sites do show inconsistency in their grading of shortstops. Troy Tulowitzki, for example, fails to even show up in the Baseball-Reference list.

2. Though his playing time has been limited, Ruben Tejada has the second-highest MbWAR and fifth-highest MfWAR among NL shortstops.

Certainly due to the uncertainties of baseball, and to his level of inexperience, it's unfair to use this data to say that Tejada is an all-star caliber shortstop. However, it does seem fair to say that Tejada, when on the field, has certainly played like one. Let's hope that it's a trend that continues, because he looks to be headed for a bright and prosperous future.

Ike Davis is Once Again a Cromulent First Baseman

In honor of Ike Davis raising his batting average over the Mendoza Line for the first time this season, I decided it would be fitting to do a post about his recent hot streak, and his season as a whole.

Through 76 games, Ike has hit .201/.281/.376 with 11 doubles, 10 home runs, and 41 RBI. When his "hot streak" began, he was hitting .166/.244/.276, with six doubles, five home runs, and 21 RBI. Let's look at what he's done since, with a bit of context:

In 149 plate appearances last year (which many considered to resemble a potential All-Star year), Ike Davis hit .302/.383/.583, with eight doubles, a triple, seven home runs and 25 RBI.  


Over his last 55 plate appearances, Ike has hit a whopping .347/.418/.755, with five doubles, five home runs, and 21 RBI. In the past 15 games (13 starts), Ike has pretty much matched what he did in 36 "breakout" games last season.


I think we can have a little confidence in Ike's "return".

In which I dissect the bullpen

As you can see here, the Mets' bullpen ranks 30th out of 30 teams in ERA. They're tied with Houston for 29th with a .275 BAA. They rank 22nd with 85 walks surrendered. Fortunately, they also rank 22nd in innings pitched, so their damage has been somewhat limited.

I would assert though, that "the Mets have the worst bullpen in baseball" does not necessarily hold, however; as the Mets may not currently hold the worst collection of relievers.

Exhibit A: Manny Acosta
Manny Acosta had a high ERA. Higher than anyone on the Mets not named Chris Schwinden.  Acosta, however, pitched 13.1 more innings than Schwinden before getting axed.


Manny Acosta allowed 33 runs (29 earned) in his 22 innings, earning him an 11.86 ERA. Only two pitchers on the Mets have allowed more - Dillon Gee (45, 41 earned) and Jonathon Niese (35, 32 earned). They're both starting pitchers, however. Dillon Gee has pitched 61.1 more innings than Acosta, Niese 53.1. 


Thanks to ESPN, we can see rather quickly that the the Met 'pen has allowed 113 earned runs in 188.1 innings, giving them 5.40 ERA. Quick subtraction shows us that, minus Acosta, those numbers shrink to 84 ER in 166.1 innings. Their ERA? 4.55, nearly a full run less. They move all the way up to 29th! My argument is, albeit weakly, already proven!

But that's a little too simplistic. Let's see how the current bullpen measures up. Currently*, the Mets carry Frank Francisco, Jon Rauch, Bobby Parnell, Tim Byrdak, Miguel Batista**, Jeremy Hefner**, and Elvin Ramirez as relievers. Let's take a look at their collective performance in 2012.

* Ramon Ramirez is being included as his absence is health-related, unlike the other excluded relievers who were either optioned or designated for assignment.

** Only relief statistics are included here.

[Click to embiggen]

So, they have a 4.41 ERA. Not great, but quite close to last year's 4.33. Some things have improved -- They're getting more strikeouts (8.41 K/9, vs. 7.91).

Two important takeaways from this:

1. They're improving. The worst two relievers, Acosta and DJ Carrasco, are no longer with the ball club. Francisco's ERA has dropped from 8.59 to 5.00 since May 14th.

2. Their "damage" will be limited. Dillon Gee's and Jonathon Niese's improvement over the past month, and Chris Young's stability in Mike Pelfrey's rotation slot will allow the Mets' to rely less on the 'pen, and the less they're used the better they will be.


And if all else fails, the Mets have built up some reinforcements in the minors. Pedro Beato and Jenrry Mejia will both be available before the All-Star Break. Given how poorly the bullpen has performed to this point, the future is much, much brighter than we all once thought.

The Mets after 64 (part 2!) -- By Batting Order

In my last post I broke down the production that the Mets have gotten out of each position on the field, and how they project going forward. Because it's basically the same data here, just organized differently, I'm not going to provide a spot-by-spot breakdown. I'm also going to, for kicks and giggles, put together my 'ideal' lineup based on the best performances in each spot.

Let's get started!

Again, a few notes:
1. These statistics only include those in the position (i.e. Ruben Tejada's at bats in the 8-hole are not included in his leadoff statistics)
2. I have again omitted including pitchers, as their offense is largely sporadic and highly unpredictable.
3. These statistics are as of 6/14.



(Click the position for a larger version of the statistics graphics)
FIRST:

SECOND:

THIRD:

FOURTH:

FIFTH:

SIXTH:

SEVENTH:

EIGHTH:

NINTH:

A few things to note this year:

- The Mets are getting excellent production out of their leadoff batters. Andres Torres weighs down the batting average, but his 19/15 BB/K ratio really has compensated for it. Kirk Nieuwenhuis and Ruben Tejada put up very similar numbers, Kirk swinging for a bit more power and Ruben getting on base better. The Mets seem to have two bonafide leadoff hitters; I would prefer Nieuwenhuis stay in the spot when Tejada returns, as Tejada has shown an adeptness in the 8th spot. If Ike Davis continues to struggle, however, Kirk could find his bat in the middle of the order in an attempt to plug the gaping 5-hole.

- Continuing with the leadoff point, they have scored 47 runs on 70 hits, with 5 home runs and 27 RBI. Jose Reyes has 30 runs scored on 72 hits, with 2 home runs and 16 RBI in Miami this year, in an almost identical sample size (299 PA's vs. 294). Maybe this argument is more fit for arguing that Reyes was not an ideal leadoff hitter. Maybe all those stolen bases weren't super important. The Mets' pace of 119 runs scored, 13 home runs, and 68 RBI are all better than Reyes' averages, and any of those numbers would be a top-3 total for him.

- Daniel Murphy has been so much better batting second (.319/.387/.404) than fifth (.283/.321/.368), in nearly identical samples. It's not even close. My completely uneducated guess is that batting fifth caused a shift in his strategy at the plate. His walk-rate plummeted, leading me to believe that he was trying to force himself to put more balls into play. Murph had found himself an excellent groove, moving others over and setting a clean table for David Wright and the middle of the order. When he got moved, he was expected to produce runs. While he certainly did a fine job, it plays against his strengths. Daniel won't hit many home runs, but I would say he might have the best eye at the plate on this team, save maybe David Wright.

- David Wright can hit third. No one else. Daniel Murphy can hit there when Wright as games off (sliding Tejada into the two-hole), but that's it. Wright's 52 starts here are, by far, the most any player has had in a particular lineup slot, behind Duda's 31 in the cleanup spot.

- The middle of the order has struggled mightily, but somehow look to combine for 66 home runs and over 300 RBI. Batters hitting fifth have slugged a collective .378, the second worst of any spot in the order, behind the eight spot. The struggles of Ike Davis and Jason Bay, and the injuries to Ruben Tejada have taken their toll here. A productive Davis would allow Duda to bat sixth, where he's hit .288/.345/.596 this year, with 5 home runs and 10 RBI in only 52 at bats. With a healthy Ruben Tejada, the Mets could slot Scott Hairston or Kirk Nieuwenhuis fifth depending on the matchup.

- 15(!) different hitters have been written into the 7th spot in the order this year. Josh Thole has performed the best, with a .351/.415/.432 line in 11 starts here. Aside from stabilizing the catcher position, Thole's healthy return lengthens the lineup.

- In 119 plate appearances, non-pitchers have hit an astounding .299/.361/.514 in the ninth spot. They have gotten excellent production out of their pinch hitters.



Based strictly on this data, my 'ideal' lineup would be:

Kirk Nieuwenhuis, CF
Daniel Murphy, 2B
David Wright, 3B
Scott Hairston, LF
Ike Davis, 1B
Lucas Duda, DH
Josh Thole, C
Ruben Tejada, SS
Mike Baxter, RF

Which is largely similar to what the Mets are running out right now, swapping Mike Baxter out for the pitcher and Ruben Tejada for Omar Quintanilla.

The Mets after 64 -- by Position

Terry Collins has said multiple times that the success of the 2012 New York Mets (I'm not going to link each player because of the sheer number; click for all the data) would depend on the ability for all 25 players to contribute. He made a pretty conservative estimate. Through the first 64 games, 39 different players have made appearances for the Mets -- 20 batters, and 19 pitchers (20 if you consider Rob Johnson's scoreless inning against Toronto). There have been at least three different players to start at each position, and four of the eight opening-day position players have spent time on the DL (CF Andres Torres, LF Jason Bay, SS Ruben Tejada, and C Josh Thole). Five players have started at Shortstop, and six have started at Left Field through the first 64 games of the season. Last month I did a 30-game review of the starting line-up. Given that half of those guys haven't done much since then, I'm taking a different approach this time. Today I'm doing a to-date review of each position by aggregate production (i.e. the total statistics of players at that position). Later this weekend I'm going to break it down by batting order.


Some notes:
1. The statistics only include data from when that player was at that position, not their overall production. Beneath the players' statistics are the totals, and then an extrapolation of those totals to a 162-game season.
2. The statistics do not include games played on or after 6/15.
3. I have not included offensive statistics from pitchers.
4. Designated Hitters and Pinch Hitters' statistics have been combined.


So, without further ado, let's begin!


(Click the position for a larger version of the statistics)
CATCHER:

The Mets haven't gotten much production from their backstops, but this is largely due to Josh Thole's extended absence after suffering a concussion on May 7th. In that time, Rob Johnson clearly outpaced Mike Nickeas offensively, but the team showed their preference for Nickeas' defensive abilities as they optioned Johnson when Thole returned. As Thole readjusts and collects more at bats, I would expect the .240/.304/.304 line to improve. The catchers are on pace for a collective 48 RBI, but I expect them to outpace that number.


It's also worth noting that Josh Thole currently has a bWAR of 1.2 this year, which equals his collective bWAR from 2009-2011. While he lacks power, he is continuing to show that his ability to hit for average and get on base provide solid offensive value at his position. 




FIRST BASE:

First base has been an adventure so far this year; the struggles of Ike Davis have been thoroughly, extensively, and continuously chronicled. That said, he's been heating up of late, having hit in six straight games, with 1 HR, 2 2B, and 7 RBI in that span.


While the projected 17 home runs from first base are, along with the collective .197 average, much lower than everyone was hoping for, the 78 RBI are at least respectable. Like the catchers, I would bet that both these numbers are topped as Davis' numbers begin to normalize. Realistically, Ike's continued improvement is a necessity for the Mets to continue to compete in August and beyond. His struggles have occurred almost exclusively at home; his road numbers (.257/.341/.477) compare favorably to his career averages. Depending on how long Ike's streak carries, the outlook here could change quickly.




SECOND BASE:

The keystone has been a bit of a mixed bag this year. To his credit, the difference in Daniel Murphy's defense over the first two months has been night and day. The oddity in that though, is that he routinely makes highlight-reel plays and struggles on the simple ones. My (note: purely conjecture) take from it is that his shortcomings at this point are purely mental; Murphy may be second guessing or trying to anticipate things. He definitely has the athleticism for the position, and will continue to improve as it becomes more instinctive. Plays like this have to be encouraging, and no one can question Murph's work ethic.  


Offensively, he's been struggling of late, but he'll likely be able to pick his average back up as the year continues. He's been extremely durable, accounting for 221 of the 241 plate appearances by Mets' second basemen this year, and just under 25% of his hits have gone for extra bases. Backups Justin Turner and Jordany Valdespin collectively have put up Murphian numbers. 


The lingering question here is that of power. Murphy has some pop (he actually led the ball club in home runs in 2009 with 12), but has yet to hit a four-bagger this year (he has the most plate appearances in the MLB without a home run in 2012). I'll expect him to hit a few as the year carries on, but if the Mets can get the projected 76 RBI from the position, they'll take it. 




THIRD BASE:

David Wright.


But seriously, the Mets dodged a major bullet with Wright's broken pinky in April. He's cooled off significantly in the past few weeks, but is still having a monster season, and could end up near 25 HR / 100 RBI and well over 100 runs scored. That, combined with his batting average and on base percentage, spells an MVP-caliber season from Wright. Production at third base otherwise has been poor, as Ronny Cedeno, Justin Turner, and Vinny Rottino combined to go 4-21 with 3 RBI, 2 runs scored and zero walks.


There's not much else I can say that hasn't been said already. Wright is simply on another level this year, and isn't showing a lot of signs of slowing down. He's an extra base machine (39.7% of his hits have gone for extra bases), he's walking more often than striking out, and his defense has been better than in the past two years. He's basically the R.A. Dickey of hitting this year.




SHORTSTOP:

I'm going to start this section by linking to a blog called Lovable Losers, who did an excellent job comparing the production of the Mets group of shortstops to that of Miami Marlins' shortstop Jose Reyes (advantage: Mets). His statistics don't include games from 6/13 forward, but he provides excellent insight and analysis which is partially responsible for me doing these posts. It's a classic case of small sample size, admittedly, but it goes without saying that were the opposite case true, it would be rubbed in the face of the team relentlessly. 


The Shorstops aren't scoring as many runs as Reyes averaged with the Mets, but the dropoff isn't nearly as significant as many expected. The important takeaways this far are that Ruben Tejada is a quality major league hitter (and he's only 22!), and Omar Quintanilla was an excellent signing by Sandy Alderson. It's unlikely that he'll remain on the team when Ronny Cedeno and Ruben Tejada are both healthy, but he will be the everyday shortstop going forward, until Tejada's return.




LEFT FIELD:

Two things stick out here -- Kirk Nieuwenhuis is only 9 plate appearances away from being the "primary" left fielder (with Jason Bay returning to the DL, this will likely occur), and Scott Hairston really should have that distinction. (After Bay's injury last night, Hairston hit a 2-run home run, his 9th of the year, in left field last night. Think about that. Scott Hairston has 120 at bats, and 9 home runs. Until Bay's return, he will likely see every start against left-handed pitching, given his ridiculous .310/.333/.607 line. His hitting against RHP isn't as good, but his .417 slugging percentage is good enough to gamble on a low batting average.


Jason Bay has gone from a disappointment, to a flat-out shame. No matter his poor production (which I partially debunked here), few players have given as much effort as Bay. He has spent his two-plus seasons in Queens with only one task - to endear himself to Mets fans. His injuries have all come as a result of his effort -- two concussions from crashing into walls, and a broken rib from diving for a ball. Say what you will about him, Jason Bay has spent two and a half years literally putting his health and well-being on the line for this team. 


Speaking of, it's a damn shame that Mike Baxter will miss so much time. Aside from all the storylines (however compelling they may be, and they certainly are), his bat would pair perfectly with Hairston's in a left field platoon. The Mike Hairston/Scott Baxter (pick one, neither really work) platoon has hit .359/.407/.664 with seven home runs and 27 RBI in only 128 at bats. That's a damn good left fielder. It's so good, in fact, it outpaces Josh Hamilton's 2010 MVP season. It's certainly unfair of me to say that's what would continue to happen, but it's a gamble I would take without question.




CENTER FIELD:

Last winter, the Mets traded embattled centerfielder Angel Pagan to San Francisco for reliever Ramon Ramirez. Andres Torres came along for the ride, but ultimately was a 'pot sweetener', if you will. If Kirk Nieuwenhuis had not missed the majority of 2011 after shoulder surgery, he probably would have gone into this season as the opening day centerfielder. But he did, so he wasn't. Torres, most project, is a solid fourth outfielder, given his fantastic defense and largely average bat. Nieuwenhuis was a hotly-debated prospect coming off a significant injury. At every level of the minors, Captain Kirk has been labeled as a guy who wouldn't succeed. He was generally projected as a platoon guy, given his disparate righty/lefty splits. However, he proceeded to hit, and continue to hit, consistently, at every level. His career minor league slashline is a respectable .280/.354/.464. Notably, it's roughly what he hit at every level -- he didn't necessarily feast on A-level pitching and struggle in the higher levels. His major league slashline this year is .297/.358/.440. He strikes out a lot, but that's followed him at every level. 


Looking above, it's clear that he's been at his best in center field. He's been decidedly better than Torres, and is being rewarded by Terry Collins with the majority of playing time . His .196 average against left-handed pitching needs to improve if he's to become a fixture in the Mets' future, but he has shown some encouraging signs so far. That and his impressive defense make him an exciting prospect. Flying under the radar because of the Bryce Harper hype, Nieuwenhuis is having a Rookie-of-the-Year-caliber season this year and is showing no signs of slowing down. 






RIGHT FIELD:

Lucas Duda has been as good offensively as he's been poor defensively. He had a bit of a slow start to his season, which comes with precedent (he struggled in 2010, and didn't hit his first home run until his 110th PA of 2011). However, he's slugged .574 over his last 20 games, despite only hitting .250 in that span. While the average may not be ideal, the Mets will gladly take his six home runs and 18 RBI in that span (49HR and 145RBI pace extrapolated over 162 games). The big takeaway, though, is that Duda hit .292 last year. If he can push his average back toward that number, while still maintaining the run production, Lucas can be a monster in right field. He is still raw as a power hitter, but displays raw strength similar to Mike Stanton (Duda's home runs have very similar average distance and speed off the bat to Stanton -- 412.7' and 106.33mph vs. 413.9' and 107mph). It'd be somewhat foolish of me to insist that Lucas Duda is destined to produce what Stanton does, but he's certainly capable of the same contact. And, of course, the better his offense, the less anyone will notice his defense.




PINCH/DESIGNATED HITTER:

Against expectation, the Mets have had excellent production from their pinch hitters and from the DH position. The other side of the coin, though, is that many of the players responsible for this production are now regulars in the line-up due to injury (Scott Hairston) or on the DL (Mike Baxter, Justin Turner). Either way though, Terry Collins has been pushing the proper buttons to get production out of guys you haven't heard of, and that's more or less been the tale of the Mets' season as a whole this year. It says a lot that the Mets could get 100 rbi from pitchers and pinch hitters this year. 






So there you have it. Without Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran, with a $52 Million payroll cut that's been ballyhooed and thrown in our faces for months, Despite the struggles of Ike Davis, the absence of Jason Bay, the absence of a running game, and a laundry list of injuries, the Mets have scored 287 runs in their first 64 games, putting them on pace to outscore last year's team by 14 runs. They're 4 games better than last year's team, and are a much, much more fun team to watch. We really don't know what their potential is, or what the future holds, but it's safe to say that the Mets are righting the ship.


Let's go Mets!

Twitter

If you're reading my blog (and actually enjoy it!) you're welcome to follow me on Twitter! I use the blog Twitter (@MetsByNumbers) to announce upcoming posts, and to occasionally tweet things about the team. My personal Twitter feed (@danhaefeli) I use much more often, and talk about things other than just baseball. And please, as always, if there's any particular storyline or trend you want to learn more about, let me know and I'll do some research!

Johan Santana

On May 9th, I wrote this about Johan Santana:

So far, Santana has been everything the Mets could have hoped for and so much more. Were it not for his poor (read: pitiful) run support, Santana would likely be 4 or 5 - 1 right now, with his only loss coming in his 1.1IP start in Atlanta. If you remove that one start, his ERA drops to 1.51. Despite diminished velocity (his fastball is averaging 88.4mph vs. 89.6 in 2010), Santana has shown that he can still succeed. He offsets his fastball by a full 10mph with his circle change up (arguably once the best out pitch in baseball), and shows a competitive fire matched by few. His 9.9 K/9IP will likely drop (he has averaged 7.6 with the Mets), but so should his 3.5 BB/9IP. Coming into this season, we viewed anything from Santana as a gift. Going forward, it seems safe to say that Johan is here to say, but don't take it for granted. Santana was one of baseball's elite pitchers for years, and a return to the top, though unlikely, isn't entirely out of the question. After the work he's put in so far, it's hard to doubt what he can accomplish.

Not that I'm trying to pat myself on the back here, but look at his numbers since then:

5 GS, 2 SHO, 37 IP, 2-1, 2.19 ERA, 24 H, 34 K, 9 BB

He's been dominant. Five of those nine walks came in just one of those starts [Fun fact! It was a no-hitter]. Since allowing a game-tying home run in Pittsburgh on May 21st, he hasn't allowed a run. Since his 4-out outing in Atlanta on April 17th, he's pitched at least six innings every time out. And dammit, he's getting better. Santana has never thrown more than two shutouts in a season. He's thrown [a major-league leading] two in the past week. He's still not perfect with his control, but it's not slowing him down. Forgive the optimism, but there's a chance that he hasn't yet reached his best. Pitching coach Dan Warthen said last week that we would see a different Johan Santana around the beginning of June. How's 4 hits over his last 18 innings sound?

Coming into this season, Santana was a major question mark. Now he's an exclamation point. His 2.38 ERA entering today was 6th in the National League entering play. He's 6th in the National League in strikeouts (R.A. Dickey is 4th); his .200 average against is 4th and his WHIP is 8th. He's on pace for 200 innings AND strikeouts this year. Johan Santana is back.

Believe it!

Section 334, Row 1, Seat 21

I was there.

In the first breath, those are pretty much the only words I can use to describe it.

Today's game has been long circled on my calendar. My friend Tommy, one of my five or six closest friends, is a huge Cardinals fan. A group of us had decided that we would capitalize when they came to town. We're still going to the game on Sudnay I was with him for Game 7 last year, saw the elation on his face. As a younger fan (I'm 23), who's only been really following baseball for a few years, it's something that I've rarely (if ever) gotten from the Mets. Sure, they're fun to watch, and when they've said that "you see something new in every baseball game", they were probably talking about the Mets. And, unfortunately, it was new ways to lose. But that's not what's important.

We bought the tickets on StubHub this morning. Left Field Landing. Front row. I left my office in Long Island City at about 4:40. I knew my friends wouldn't arrive until at least six o'clock, so I took my time to the ballpark. I got a beer at a bar in Sunnyside. I walked another six blocks to find an ATM with a fee under $3 (I settled on one in a random bakery that was $2.50). I got to Citi Field, via the 7 train, at around  5:45. At that point, my friends had just gotten through the Holland Tunnel. They wouldn't arrive for a while. I sat down at a bench outside the Jackie Robinson rotunda, next to an elderly man in a Cardinals jersey. Mostly silence. We shared a laugh, however, at the fact that there's a Fanwalk brick that just says 'Moo'. Around 6:15, I got up and walked around. I found a group of guys tailgating. I asked them for a (n adult) drink, and they happily obliged. I spent the next half hour talking baseball with them. We discussed the Hall of Fame merits of Keith Hernandez, as well as memories of Mike Piazza and thoughts about the 1980's Mets. They headed in. My friends (the aforementioned Tommy, and our friend Ed) arrived a few minutes after. We headed in and to our seats:

Section 334, Row 1, Seat 21.

It was nice, as we had the three last seats in our row. As we got near our section, Ed turns to me and says "watch, Johan throws a no-hitter tonight and the Mets lose." A joke, of course, because he's probably said something to that tune before every Mets game he's been alive for.

We watched the first inning in our seats. After Adam Wainwright set down Mike Baxter, Kirk Nieuwenhuis, and David Wright, I made my way for the snack stands. Got a hot dog and a beer. The line, of course, took me through the entirety of the second inning. I watched Johan strike out Adams and Greene from the luxury of a tensabarrier line, waiting on my hot dog. Got it, ate it, went back to the game.

The first time I mentioned it was the middle of the third inning. It kinda became a joke; maybe 'not talking about a no hitter' was the jinx. Didn't even occur to me though, that it could actually happen, until Mike Baxter's catch in the 7th. Sitting in the Left Field Landing, we had a perfect view of Baxter's grab. My first thought: "He's not getting up. $@*^ I hope he's okay". My second thought: "Every no-hitter has one awesome defensive play. Maybe this is it." Andres Torres came in, Kirk shifted, and the game continued. Johan's pitch count was well over 100 already, and we began to debate when he would be lifted. The Mets, of course, had a comfortable lead already, thanks to the heroics of David Wright, Daniel Murphy, and Lucas "f*@^ it, maybe I will hit 30 homers this year" Duda. When Johan came to bat in the bottom of the 7th, we were already going nuts. We already saw him in the on deck circle.

His pitch count continued to rise, but he stayed effective. Santana was doing with an 89 mph fastball what most pitchers hope to do with 95-mph heat. He fanned 8 over the start, and walked 5, but rarely gave up solid contact. There were few balls that made you fear the inevitable (the Beltran liner notwithstanding). Bobby Parnell was available in the 7th, but never left the bullpen. Terry Collins questioned it, considered taking Santana out, but never could make the move. And it worked out for the best.

Come the ninth inning, we all knew what was happening. A fly ball to Torres. A fly ball to Nieuwenhuis. Perhaps it was fitting that Santana finished it with his eighth strikeout. After almost 20 months of doubt, of skepticism, he showed the world that he can be dominant, regardless of velocity. He did it himself.

As Mets fans, we've probably long taken him for granted. When healthy, Johan Santana has been one of (if not) the best pitchers in baseball. His change up was once the most effective pitch in the majors. And that's where we stood. 2 out, 133 pitches in, and that pitch, that mentality, that man completed what no one else could do in blue and orange: he did not surrender a single base hit to the opposing team.

I can't accurately describe it. I can't tell you what it was like being there, seeing it. Hugging people I've never met. High five-ing little children, who may not understand the gravity of the situation. Perhaps no one will. In fact, it may mean more to him than it ever will to us. After tonight, no one can say that Johan Santana isn't back. Isn't healthy. Isn't an ace.

Holy shit.

R.A. Dickey: The National League's Best Kept Secret?

If you play fantasy baseball on ESPN.com, you would know that Mets pitcher R.A. Dickey is currently owned in 90.2% of public leagues. What you would also know is that a week ago that number was only 46.9%. Such a jump is usually indicative of a rookie storming into the show, a la Mike Trout in Los Angeles. Since we're starting with a fantasy baseball argument, let's look at what Fox Sport's Ryan Fowler said about Dickey on May 23rd:

"Investing in knuckle ball pitchers is always risky. His K/9 rate of 8.01 is nearly three strikeouts higher than his average over the last three seasons. Despite an ERA hovering around 3.00 and a 1.20 WHIP, Dickey is a sub-.500 pitcher (19-22) over the last two seasons."


In all fairness, Dickey *did* go 19-22 in 2010-11. Two things contributed to this - a rough start to 2011 (2-6, 4.39ERA through May 31). However, after that point, Dickey had been lights out in 2011. Here's the line on his final 21 starts last year:

21 GS, 1 CG, 6-7 (12-9 team record), 141 IP, 125 H, 43 ER, 31 BB, 89 K, 2.74 ERA, 1.106 WHIP

If you agree that a pitcher's win-loss record doesn't tell the whole story, the *only* knock on Dickey is his lack of strikeouts (5.68 K/9). Other than that, Dickey was one of the best in the National League last year, despite dealing with painful plantar fasciitis. And it's not a trend that has slowed down. If we include R.A. Dickey's 2012 work, we have:

31 GS, 1 CG, 13-8 (20-10 team record), 210 IP, 179 H, 65 ER, 48 BB, 150 K, 2.78 ERA, 1.081 WHIP

Well those sure are a top-flight pitcher's statistics! Let's compare that to a couple other recent National League pitching seasons:

Pitcher A: 32 GS, 8 CG, 19-6 (24-8 team record), 233.2 IP, 208 H, 61 ER, 35 BB, 220 K, 2.35 ERA, 1.040 WHIP

Pitcher B: 33 GS, 1 CG, 13-14 (17-16 team record), 217 IP, 176 H, 66 ER, 86 BB, 220 K, 2.74 ERA, 1.207 WHIP

Pitcher C: 35 GS, 1 CG, 16-9 (22-13 team record), 235 IP, 214 H, 84 ER, 63 BB, 179 K, 3.22 ERA, 1.179 WHIP

(Read to the end for the reveal!)



"But he doesn't have elite strikeout numbers!"

True, but not vital here. This does create a Sabermetric disadvantage of sorts, as many pitching metrics (FIP,SIERA for example) weight strikeouts over other 'out-types' and thus rank him lower. Despite not racking up K's, R.A. Dickey nonetheless compares favorably to his counterparts in ERA, WHIP, and IP/start -- he still gets batters out just as efficiently. It's hard to predict if his K-numbers this year won't regress, but he's done enough to show that he doesn't need them to succeed.

"But the knuckleball is such a random pitch, how do we know this will last?"


This is true. The knuckleball is in itself a "small sample size" element. No one knows it well enough to predict it, not even the men who throw them. Dickey began to throw the pitch full time in 2005, and admits openly that it's a work in progress. However, what we do know, is that he's making a pretty damn good argument that he's got this down. His career ERA with the Mets is 3.08, and 49 of his 68 starts with the Mets have been "Quality" (and he's only given up more than 4 runs in a start 7 times). He's averaged nearly 6.2 innings since joining the rotation, and a stunning (for a knuckleball pitcher) 2.3 walks per nine. And for those who want to argue his success against his past failures, Dickey's last start marked the point at which more than 50% of his Major League innings have come with the Mets.

Robert Allan is also, by several metrics, one of the best fielders at his position. He finished last year with an MLB-leading 58 assists, 3rd in the majors with 8 defensive runs saved, 3rd in the majors (among RHPs) with 5 pickoffs, and 2nd in the MLB (1st in the National League) in Baseball Info Solutions Fielding Bible Awards (source).


When Dickey won the National League POY award last week (2-0, 14.1 IP, 1 ER, 21 K), his name launched into the national spotlight. The secret is out. What some of us have known for a while is that it's belonged there for some time now.




The pitchers used for comparison are:


A: Roy Halladay (2011)
B: Tim Lincecum (2011)
C: Chris Carpenter (2010)

with a combined 5 Cy Young awards between them.

The Tale of Two Ikes

Ike Davis' splits page (linked) shows some pretty interesting stats that actually show a distinct dichotomy in Ike's 2012 season.

• Ike Davis is hitting only .065/.134/.081 at Citi Field this year (4/62, .105 BABIP), and a (relatively) much more respectable .229/.273/.446 on the road (19/83, .241 BABIP). Comparing to his career .263/.334/.450 mark, it seems that though he may be getting hits at a lesser rate, he's driving the ball well in visiting parks.
• Ike is hitting .280/.308/.520 (7/25, 3 2B, 1 HR) from the 7th spot in the batting order, compared to .133/.194/.242 elsewhere (16/120, 1 2B, 4 HR). Certainly too small a sample size to draw conclusions, and he's still not drawing walks, but Ike's bat has been powerful down in that spot.
• Ike is hitting .303/.303/.615 (4/13, 1 2B, 1 HR) with runners on the corners.

• Ike vs. RHP - .146/.219/.271
• Ike vs. LHP - .184/.200/.327

• Ike's numbers on balls hit to the outfield - .429/.429/.881 (18/42)
• Ike's numbers on balls hit to right field - .464/.464/1.036 (13/28)

Ike has been disappointing this year, and has looked lost at the plate. Even with a vote of confidence from Terry Collins, many are still calling for him to spend time in AAA. His poor play at the plate is hurting the team, but the question remains whether the time in AAA will come back to Queens with him. 

I don't claim to have any secrets to Ike's game; in fact I don't have cable in my apartment so I rarely see him play. That said, I think there are two red flags from these numbers:

1.  Ike Davis is having great results pulling the ball (18/42) and terrible results going to the opposite fields (10/73).
2. Roughly half (49/101) of Ike's AB's that ended with a ball in play are ground balls, and have yielded only 8 singles. 

It's not a long-term solution, but perhaps Collins and hitting coach Dave Hudgens should work with Ike Davis on pulling balls to right field, which he has always done well, to build some confidence. He can't get much worse at the plate, so perhaps having him focus on one specific task at the plate may help him bust this funk.

A Quick Note on Jason Bay (Updated)

I was discussing Jason Bay earlier today, and decided to look at some of his splits.

Bay's career slashline -- .274/.368/.493, 206HR, 234 2B, 30 3B in 4864 PA's
Bay's Mets slashline -- .251/.355/.391, 21HR, 41 2B, 7 3B in 967 PA's
Bay's Citi Field slashline -- .275/.362/.438, 10HR, 25 2B, 5 3B in 462 PA's

For all that's been said about the psychological difference due to the size of Citi Field, he's played almost exactly to his averages in Queens. In his career, he's homered in 4.25% of his plate appearances, and doubled or tripled in 5.43%. In Citi Field, those numbers are 2.16% and 6.49%. That spells a noticeable trade-off, but he still racked up extra base hits at a similar rate (9.68% vs. 8.66%). Away from Citi Field as a Met, the home run rate (2.18%) stayed the same, but the 2B/3B rate plummeted (3.56%). For all that was talked up about Citi Field being the issue, it seems Bay's struggles were really pronounced on the road.

-- Update 5/14 --

After thinking about it, I wanted to take a look at some other players, and compare their slashlines at Citi Field compared to their career averages:

David Wright --
Career: .303/.383/.510
@ Citi Field: .280/.381/.449

Jose Reyes --
Career: .291/.341/.438
@ Citi Field: .315/.366/.484

Carlos Beltran --
Career: .284/.362/.499
@ Citi Field: .290/.374/.475

Ike Davis --
Career: .257/.340/.439
@ Citi Field: .243/.337/.415

Daniel Murphy --
Career: .296/.346/.435
@ Citi Field: .312/.347/.462

At first glance, it seems that the power hitters (Beltran, Davis, Wright especially) suffer hits to their slugging percentages while Jose Reyes and Daniel Murphy, both line-drive gap hitters, saw a noticeable improvement. Since David Wright's line was affected almost identically (he actually has suffered a larger drop in slugging than has Bay), let's analyze his stats like we did Bay's.


CAREER:
187HR, 289 2B, 18 3B in 4920 career PA's
HR rate: 3.80%
2B & 3B rate: 6.24%
Overall: 10.04%

@ CITI FIELD:
24HR, 44 2B, 6 3B in 898 career PA's
HR rate: 2.67%
2B & 3B rate: 5.57%
Overall: 8.24%

What we can see here, is that Jason Bay has actually accumulated extra base hits at a slightly better rate than David Wright has at Citi Field (8.66% vs. 8.24%), but Wright has hit a higher percentage of home runs. Ultimately this allows us to draw two conclusions:

1. Jason Bay's statistics at Citi Field are, believe it or not, almost completely characteristic of the type of hitter he has been over his career. His decrease in slugging followed Wright's almost identically.

2. Jason Bay hasn't really struggled at Citi Field to the portrayed extent. His decrease in slugging could be explained as a direct result of balls that were home runs in Pittsburgh and Boston not being home runs in New York.

Why I'm Sick of Hearing About Payroll Cuts

Back in February, Chris Walendin (@tpgMets) wrote an interesting piece on Mets360.com dissecting the Mets' ballyhooed $52.4 Million payroll cut, and how overblown it may be. (Click here to read it. I'll wait...)

The payroll cut has been one of the favorite shots taken at the team (and the Wilpons) this winter, after watching Jose Reyes go to the Florida Miami Marlins for a $106 Million payday ( reportedly after not receiving an offer from the Mets, which was another hazy issue). Either way, what little money Sandy Alderson spent shored up the bullpen by signing Frank Francisco and Jon Rauch to a combined $15.5 million over two years, and trading an inconsistent, arbitration-eligible Center Fielder for Ramon Ramirez (and an older inconsistent, arbitration-eligible Center Fielder). They resigned Scott Hairston, brought in Ronny Cedeño, and let former first-round pitcher Adam Loewen and Queens-native Mike Baxter battle it out for the lefty bench role. Offensive Jugger-not Mike Nickeas was all-but handed the backup catcher's role. But all 11 of you reading this knew all that.

Back to the money. So the Mets are doomed because they slashed payroll. They spent about $145 Million last year on 77 wins. At that same price, their new $93 Million payroll should be good for about 49 (They would need to go 30-99 from here. I'd take the over). What you'll never hear on ESPN, however, is how the Mets shedded payroll. Luis Castillo and Oliver Perez didn't make the team out of spring training ($18,000,000). Carlos Beltran and Francisco Rodriguez were traded ($31,492,102). And, of course, Reyes' contract expired ($11,000,000). The Mets shedded $60,492,102 worth of contracts from five players, only one of whom was on the team on August 1st. Only two of whom provided a significant impact to the team (despite Bobby Parnell's struggles in the role, I take the Moneyball approach on the value of closers). But no, doomed.

Lost in this is the (in fairness, somewhat surprising) effective return of the Mets $24 Million Ace pitcher Johan Santana and their $16,000,000 dynamic MVP-caliber Third Baseman (yes, David Wright played last year, but the difference has been night and day). To me, it's not a surprise that the Mets are 19-14 right now (I'll admit that the 14-6 record in the NL East is delightfully surprising), because the Mets compliment their top players with some scrappy veterans (R.A. Dickey, Andres Torres), plenty of high-potential young players (Jon Niese, Dillon Gee, Lucas Duda, Ike Davis, Daniel Murphy, Josh Thole, Ruben Tejada, and Captain Kirk Nieuwenhuis). So much for the Mets' terrible farm system.

The Wilpons were on the brink of ruin because of their legal battles with Madoff Trustee Irving Picard (Note: what was originally a $1 Billion lawsuit will likely only cost them about $70 Million... in 2015.) The harsh reality suddenly isn't. What does it mean? Well, there won't (and shouldn't) be a return to the Omar Minaya era of handing out huge contracts, but there ought to be money to work with. The payroll isn't going to rise much in the next few years (many players are still pre-arbitration), but something like re-signing David Wright is no longer impossible, no matter what Ken Rosenthal or Jon Kruk may tell you.

Sandy Alderson was absolutely shredded by the media this winter for cutting payroll. In reality, he did exactly what he was brought in for. The 'Moneyball with money' GM flipped Beltran for top prospect Zack Wheeler, and Lucas Duda has hit .271/.357/.442 in his stead, despite a slow start in 2012. He gave Dickey a contract, and got 253 innings with a 3.34 ERA in return so far. His extension to Jon Niese could prove extremely variable down the road. The quality of bullpen pitchers fluctuates wildly (and boy, has it), but for the most part they seem to be settling (I'm looking at you, Manny Acosta). The 2012 Mets are captivating; they're easy to root for. They may not win 95 games; hell they may not win 81. But I don't know if there's a team in the National League that works as hard; that wants to win as badly as the Mets. They play with a boyish excitement that's contagious. If nothing else, it's a return to "Mets baseball". Not the most talented, heralded, or respected, they approach every at bat like it's the last out of the 9th inning. They're riding a thin line, but to the trained eye it seems they're starting to best it. They know what they have to do to succeed, and in this early season seem to revel in it. Ya Gotta Believe, because they really do. 

Just remember - despite what the Yankees may say, spending does not equal winning. Ask the Cubs.